Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5737
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5737
20 Nov 2025
 | 20 Nov 2025

Heat transport to the Central Arctic is Reduced by the Barents Sea Cooling Machine

Shaun A. Eisner, James A. Carton, Leon Chafik, and Lars H. Smedsrud

Abstract. The Barents Sea is a primary gateway for Atlantic Water entering the Central Arctic Ocean and ubiquitous water-mass transformation on the Barents shelf is key for mitigating increases in heat transport to the central Arctic through the St. Anna Trough. Using a mesoscale-permitting reanalysis spanning 40 years, we derive the first long-term estimate of heat transport through the St. Anna trough, finding that it has increased by 0.15 TW/year since 1980. However, this is only half of the 0.28 TW/year trend in increasing heat transport into the Barents Sea through the Barents Sea Opening. Decomposing the heat transports reveals that these trends are entirely due to warming temperatures at the sections with no discernible trend in the volume transports. We find that a northward migration of the largest heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere have resulted in cooler and denser Northern Barents Shelf Water, mitigating the heat transported through the St. Anna trough. However, despite functioning properly, the "Barents Cooling Machine" has been unable to keep pace with the dramatic warming of the Atlantic Water inflow, resulting in the residual trend in heat transport to the central Arctic. Finally, we present the first observational evidence for the “ocean feedback” hypothesis, indicating that it modulates volume transport into and out of the Barents Sea on sub-decadal timescales.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

30 Mar 2026
Increased ocean heat transport to the central Arctic despite a well working Barents Sea Cooling Machine
Shaun A. Eisner, James A. Carton, Leon Chafik, and Lars H. Smedsrud
Ocean Sci., 22, 1073–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1073-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1073-2026, 2026
Short summary
Shaun A. Eisner, James A. Carton, Leon Chafik, and Lars H. Smedsrud

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5737', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Dec 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5737', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Jan 2026

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5737', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Dec 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5737', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Jan 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Shaun Eisner on behalf of the Authors (16 Jan 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (02 Feb 2026) by Agnieszka Beszczynska-Möller
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (05 Feb 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (11 Feb 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (15 Feb 2026) by Agnieszka Beszczynska-Möller
AR by Shaun Eisner on behalf of the Authors (23 Feb 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (16 Mar 2026) by Agnieszka Beszczynska-Möller
AR by Shaun Eisner on behalf of the Authors (16 Mar 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

30 Mar 2026
Increased ocean heat transport to the central Arctic despite a well working Barents Sea Cooling Machine
Shaun A. Eisner, James A. Carton, Leon Chafik, and Lars H. Smedsrud
Ocean Sci., 22, 1073–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1073-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1073-2026, 2026
Short summary
Shaun A. Eisner, James A. Carton, Leon Chafik, and Lars H. Smedsrud

Data sets

SODA4 Dataset Gennady Chepurin et al. https://dsrs.atmos.umd.edu/DATA/

Shaun A. Eisner, James A. Carton, Leon Chafik, and Lars H. Smedsrud

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Short summary
The Barents Sea is a major route for Atlantic Water to enter the Arctic. Cold air cools incoming Atlantic Water before it exits to the Arctic through the St. Anna Trough. We derive the first long-term estimate of the heat leaving the Barents Sea through St. Anna Trough. The heat leaving has increased since 1980, but only by half as much as the increase in heat entering. Finally, we present the first observational evidence for a previously proposed mechanism to help cool inflowing Atlantic Water.
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