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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5634
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5634
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Brief communication: Uncertainties in Southern Ocean sea surface conditions and their impact on Antarctic climate over 1958–1978
Abstract. Atmospheric reanalyses extending before 1979, including ERA5, show a substantial cold bias over Antarctica during 1958–1978. Because Southern Ocean sea surface conditions (SSCs) are poorly constrained in this period, we assess their role using two ensembles of a global atmospheric model forced by different SSC datasets. The first uses the widely employed HadISST product, while the second is based on a recent reconstruction that assimilates continental observations. Our results show that SSC differences strongly alter the Antarctic surface climate, but explain only about 30 % of the ERA5 cold bias ERA5, indicating that additional factors contribute to this bias.
How to cite. Dalaiden, Q. and Bethke, I.: Brief communication: Uncertainties in Southern Ocean sea surface conditions and their impact on Antarctic climate over 1958–1978, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5634, 2025.
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Quentin Dalaiden
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Ingo Bethke
Geophysical Institute, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Short summary
Historical Antarctic climate before satellites contain uncertainties, a modern state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis indicates an unrealistically cold Antarctica in 1958–1978. We test how much of this bias comes from uncertain ocean and sea-ice conditions by performing two climate model ensembles with different ocean datasets. These differences affect Antarctic climate, but they explain only a fraction of the cold bias, meaning other factors also contribute.
Historical Antarctic climate before satellites contain uncertainties, a modern state-of-the-art...