Fault-Controlled Distribution of Pre-seismic Thermal Anomalies: Insights from the Dingri Earthquakes, Tibet

Abstract. This study analyzed pre-seismic thermal anomalies associated with two earthquakes in Tibet's Tingri region using MODIS data processed via STL (Seasonal-Trend decomposition using LOESS) decomposition and  RST (Robust Satellite Techniques) algorithm. The results reveal relatively prominent thermal anomalies within the study area during the six months preceding the earthquake occurrences. Spatially, these thermal anomalies exhibited distinctly fault-aligned distributions, particularly near the seismogenic structure (Dingmu Co fault) and major regional structures (Himalayan orogenic belt). The distribution of thermal anomalies was significantly aligned with the orientations of the faults, supported by fitting and translation analyses. Quantitative correlations exceeded 0.99 (Dingmu Co fault) and 0.95 (the Himalayan orogenic belt), indicating exceptionally strong linear relationships. These findings suggest that thermal anomalies are intrinsically linked to fault activity and may serve as potential earthquake precursors. Furthermore, time series analysis (2016–2025, Ms≥4.0) further confirmed the correlation between thermal anomaly indices and the timing of seismic events, supporting their predictive value. However, unresolved issues, such as the intervals between anomaly peaks and seismic events, and the universality of spatial correlations, require further investigation to refine earthquake prediction frameworks.