Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-53
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-53
24 Jan 2025
 | 24 Jan 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).

Statistical analysis of ocean currents in the Eastern Mediterranean

Yosef Ashkenazy, Hezi Gildor, and Aviv Solodoch

Abstract. We examined the probability density function (pdf) of current speeds in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, near the central coast of Israel. The currents cover depths from the surface to over 1.3 km and span a period from November 2016 to March 2024. We estimated the parameters of three typical distributions that are usually used to model the pdfs of currents and wind speed; the Weibull, the General Extreme Value, and the Generalized Gamma. We find that the three-parameter Generalized Gamma distribution best describes the pdfs of the observed current speed series. Still, the studied current speed time series may not be long enough to assess the exact values of the underlying pdf, as some years exhibit stronger currents that affect the distribution. The time series of the difference between consecutive current speeds exhibit less long-term variability; we studied their statistics and found that the stretched exponential pdf describes better (than the normal distribution) their statistics. Comparison of the measured current speed pdfs to current speed pdfs of a high-resolution (1 km) regional circulation model (ROMS) and Copernicus Mediterranean reanalysis daily mean currents (~4.6 km resolution) indicates discrepancies from the data. Our results may help to improve statistical models for ocean currents and the estimation of extreme current events.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Yosef Ashkenazy, Hezi Gildor, and Aviv Solodoch

Status: open (until 23 Mar 2025)

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Yosef Ashkenazy, Hezi Gildor, and Aviv Solodoch
Yosef Ashkenazy, Hezi Gildor, and Aviv Solodoch

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Short summary
We studied ocean currents in the Eastern Mediterranean near Israel's coast (2016–2024) across depths up to 1.3 km. The Generalized Gamma distribution best matched current speed data. The speed increments time series fit a stretched exponential distribution better than a normal distribution. Comparisons with high-resolution and regional general circulation models showed discrepancies, highlighting the need to refine the models for better extreme current speed event predictions.
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