Understanding the atmospheric lightning risk over Odisha, an east coastal state in India

Manavalan Rajan, Nambi; Taori, Alok; Venkatesh, Degala; Mallikarjun, Matam; Saran, Sameer; Srinivasa Rao, Goru; Chauhan, Prakash

doi:10.5194/egusphere-2025-5269

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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5269

Preprints

15 Dec 2025

| 15 Dec 2025

Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Understanding the atmospheric lightning risk over Odisha, an east coastal state in India

Nambi Manavalan Rajan, Alok Taori, Degala Venkatesh, Matam Mallikarjun, Sameer Saran, Goru Srinivasa Rao, and Prakash Chauhan

Abstract. The cloud to ground (CG) lightning occurrence is an enigmatic atmospheric phenomenon. It is one of the major natural disasters in India with East coastal region being more vulnerable. Odisha state has been the most vulnerable states in India with last 5 years recording more than 1000 fatalities per year. Owing to its highly dynamical and short lived nature, it is important to have localized and focused mitigation planning. In view that most of the existing forecasting and now-casting efforts are incapable to provide sub-kilometer scales information, the high-resolution data-based risk analysis becomes important for taking appropriate measures to safeguard the most needed communities and infrastructures. Present study develops a comprehensive lightning risk assessment framework through geospatial integration of susceptibility and vulnerability factors to support disaster management planning. The methodology combines CG lightning data, topographic elevation, land cover, and socio-economic datasets to derive lightning risk maps. The prepared risk maps demonstrate 84 % predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.84) when validated against historical incident data and shows strong correlation with district-wise lightning fatality patterns. Such lightning risk maps can be utilized for targeted lightning protection infrastructure deployment, early warning systems, and community preparedness programs.

Received: 24 Oct 2025 – Discussion started: 15 Dec 2025

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Nambi Manavalan Rajan, Alok Taori, Degala Venkatesh, Matam Mallikarjun, Sameer Saran, Goru Srinivasa Rao, and Prakash Chauhan

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RC1:
'Comment on egusphere-2025-5269', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 Jan 2026 reply
Title: Understanding the atmospheric lightning risk over Odisha, an east coastal state in India
The manuscript addresses a highly relevant and societally important hazard—cloud-to-ground lightning risk over Odisha—using high-resolution lightning detection data integrated within a geospatial multi-criteria framework. The dataset is comprehensive, and the attempt to combine hazard characteristics with socio-environmental vulnerability is appreciable. However, the presentation is presently overly descriptive and method-centric, with limited emphasis on uncertainty quantification, methodological sensitivity, and the broader generalizability of the proposed framework. Several sections would benefit from improved structure, clearer articulation of the research gap, enhanced readability of figures, and a more analytical, interpretation-driven discussion. Addressing these aspects through focused revisions will substantially improve the clarity, rigor, and overall impact of the manuscript.
Abstract
The abstract is too technical and methodology-driven, while underplaying the scientific innovation and broader implications.

The reported AUC (0.84) is highlighted, but uncertainty bounds, validation limitations, and spatial scale constraints are not mentioned.

The abstract should clearly state:
What is new compared to existing lightning risk studies in India.

Why ground-based LDSN data fundamentally changes risk assessment outcomes.

How this framework can be replicated beyond Odisha.

Consider reducing numerical detail and emphasizing decision-making relevance and transferability.

Introduction Paragraph 1: Research Problem, Relevance, and Significance
The problem statement is well motivated but reads as a literature summary rather than a critical synthesis.

The manuscript should clearly articulate:
Why Odisha represents a scientifically distinctive lightning-risk regime (coastal–orographic–monsoon interaction).

Why existing disaster mitigation strategies are insufficient without high-resolution risk mapping.

Paragraph 2: What is Known, What is Unknown, and Research Gap
While prior studies are cited, the research gap is not sharply defined.

Clarify:
What limitations exist in satellite-based LIS/TRMM studies (e.g., temporal sampling bias, spatial uncertainty).

Why vulnerability integration has been largely missing or weak in Indian lightning studies.

The gap should be framed around predictive risk assessment, not just mapping.

Paragraph 3: Objectives, Novelty, and Replicability
Objectives are clearly listed but novelty is implied rather than explicitly demonstrated.

The authors should explicitly state:
How this approach differs from Mishra et al. (2022) beyond data source.

Whether the FEMA-based weighting scheme is tested for sensitivity.

How the framework can be adapted to other monsoon-dominated regions.

Replicability claims would benefit from a workflow schematic with open-data alternatives.

Cite the following article:
https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2576889
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-023-06347-6
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10668-024-05276-z
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-025-07124-3
Methodology Clarity and Transparency
The methodology is detailed but difficult to follow due to excessive mathematical exposition.

A stepwise methodological summary table is strongly recommended.

Weighting and Assumptions
FEMA-based weights are adopted without:
Sensitivity analysis

Regional justification for Indian socio-economic contexts

The manuscript should address:
How results would change if weights vary ±10–20%.

Whether equal weighting was tested as a control.

Uncertainty and Error Treatment
Although “validation and uncertainty” is mentioned, true uncertainty propagation is missing.

Key issues:
DEM resolution effects

Kernel bandwidth sensitivity

Socio-economic data age (SECC 2011)

A dedicated uncertainty table or confidence map should be included.

4. Results and Analysis (Major Revision Required) Figures and Tables
Figures are information-rich but visually dense and difficult to interpret.

Improvements needed:
Larger fonts, clearer legends, and consistent color ramps

Reduction of redundant seasonal maps or inclusion of difference maps

Tables are descriptive but lack statistical synthesis (e.g., variance, dominance metrics).

Text–Map Integration
The narrative often repeats what is visually obvious from maps.

The results section should:
Quantify spatial contrasts (coastal vs interior, plateau vs plains)

Highlight unexpected or counter-intuitive patterns

5. Discussion
The discussion is largely confirmatory, reiterating results rather than interpreting them.

Strengthen by:
Linking findings to physical atmospheric processes (land–sea breeze, orography).

Discussing policy trade-offs (infrastructure vs community preparedness).

Comparison with previous studies should be:
More critical (what remains unresolved even after this study?)

Less defensive in tone.

Unaddressed Scientific Questions
How might climate change alter lightning–vulnerability coupling?

Are agricultural exposure patterns changing seasonally due to cropping shifts?

Can this framework be integrated with real-time forecasting or nowcasting systems?

Limitations and Future Research (Needs Expansion)
Current limitations are acknowledged but under-developed.

Explicitly discuss:
Static vulnerability assumption

Lack of intra-district behavioral data

Absence of lightning intensity or peak current differentiation

Future research directions should include:
Dynamic vulnerability modeling

Integration with IMD nowcasting products

Machine-learning-based weight optimization

Conclusion
The conclusion is comprehensive but overly long and repetitive.

It should:
Focus on key scientific contributions, not restate results.

Clearly articulate what changes for disaster management because of this study.

Avoid introducing new statistics not discussed earlier.

Revisions (Line-Level Issues) Language and Style
Frequent grammatical issues:
Subject–verb disagreement

Overuse of passive voice

Long, multi-clause sentences

Examples:
“A-kin to Mishra et al.” → “Akin to Mishra et al.”

“d4vulnerability” → typographical error

Consistency issues:
Use either “tehsil” or “block” consistently

Standardize seasonal naming conventions

Factual/Formatting Issues
Duplicate citations (e.g., Calin et al., 2013 listed twice).

Ensure all equations are referenced in text.

Improve alignment between figure numbers and captions.

Reply
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5269-RC1

Nambi Manavalan Rajan, Alok Taori, Degala Venkatesh, Matam Mallikarjun, Sameer Saran, Goru Srinivasa Rao, and Prakash Chauhan

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Short summary

Atmospheric Lightning, a complex phenomena is also considered a natural hazard, which leads to more than 2000 mortalities per year over India. With climate getting warmer such extreme events are expected to increase making the society more vulnerable. This indicates that a focused lightning-specific mitigation approach is required. Present study provides first ever lightning risk maps based on the lightning observation data to carry out focused life saving measures.


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