Understanding the atmospheric lightning risk over Odisha, an east coastal state in India

Abstract. The cloud to ground (CG) lightning occurrence is an enigmatic atmospheric phenomenon. It is one of the major natural disasters in India with East coastal region being more vulnerable. Odisha state has been the most vulnerable states in India with last 5 years recording more than 1000 fatalities per year. Owing to its highly dynamical and short lived nature, it is important to have localized and focused mitigation planning. In view that most of the existing forecasting and now-casting efforts are incapable to provide sub-kilometer scales information, the high-resolution data-based risk analysis becomes important for taking appropriate measures to safeguard the most needed communities and infrastructures. Present study develops a comprehensive lightning risk assessment framework through geospatial integration of susceptibility and vulnerability factors to support disaster management planning. The methodology combines CG lightning data, topographic elevation, land cover, and socio-economic datasets to derive lightning risk maps. The prepared risk maps demonstrate 84 % predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.84) when validated against historical incident data and shows strong correlation with district-wise lightning fatality patterns. Such lightning risk maps can be utilized for targeted lightning protection infrastructure deployment, early warning systems, and community preparedness programs.