the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 24 Nov 2025
Tracking In-Situ Snow Accumulation at Neumayer, Coastal Antarctica: Signs of Climatic Changes in the past 30 Years?
Abstract. This study investigates monthly snow accumulation derived from in-situ measurements at Neumayer Station, coastal Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, over a 33-year period (1991–2024). Snow accumulation is the major component of the surface mass balance, which is among the most uncertain factors of Antarctica's contribution to global sea level rise. The analysis aims to (1) quantify seasonal contributions and detect climatological shifts, (2) compare annual accumulation rates across three measurement sites, and (3) investigate the magnitude and nature of interannual variability. Results reveal high intra- and interannual variability without a consistent seasonal cycle. Out of the four seasons, only the austral autumn season has shown a statistically significant increase in accumulation over the past 30 years. Although no robust long-term trend was detected in annual accumulation rates, the years 2021 and 2023 stand out as statistically rare positive extremes observed across the measurement sites. Spectral analyses reveal pronounced interannual to decadal variability, which hinders the detection of potential trends and raises the question of whether these extremes reflect constructive interference of natural variability modes or indicate the onset of a regime shift in accumulation driven by global climate warming. Supplementary analysis of monthly average meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, and wind fields) revealed no consistent link to accumulation on monthly scales, suggesting a decoupling between local meteorology and snow accumulation at these time scales. This highlights the need for further research into short-term processes and event-scale accumulation drivers. The datasets presented here provide a long-term base for validating regional climate models and for ground-truthing remote sensing products related to Antarctic snow accumulation and surface mass balance.
Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of The Cryosphere.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.- Preprint
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Status: final response (author comments only)
- RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5199', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 Dec 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5199', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Jan 2026
Snow accumulation in Antarctica represents the primary input to surface mass balance and constitutes one of the most significant sources of uncertainty in projections of global sea-level rise. This study employs 33 years of monthly observations from Neumayer Station, Dronning Maud Land, to elucidate the distinct seasonal contributions and long-term trends in snow accumulation. These observational records provide a valuable reference for validating regional climate models and remote sensing products. The findings reveal a marked increase in autumn snow accumulation over the past three decades, with particularly pronounced positive anomalies in 2021 and 2023, alongside clear interannual to decadal variability. The authors also explore relationships between monthly mean meteorological parameters and snow accumulation in an effort to explain the drivers behind these variations.
Overall, this study offers meaningful insights for the research community of The Cryosphere. However, several important issues should be addressed to further strengthen the manuscript. In my view, these additions are important for the completeness of the study, and most of the issues should not be difficult to resolve. I therefore recommend that the paper be returned to the authors for major revision. Detailed comments are provided below:
- The authors could attempt to explain the recent trends in snow accumulation from both dynamic and thermodynamic perspectives, distinguishing whether the changes primarily originate from shifts in atmospheric circulation or from enhanced moisture availability due to warming. Such an analysis would offer a clearer response to the question posed in the abstract—namely, whether these trends are dominated by global warming or natural variability modes, and what their relative contributions are.
- A key consideration is the spatial representativeness of the observed time series—specifically, to what degree the snow accumulation trends at Neumayer Station reflect broader regional changes. This distinction is essential for identifying the primary drivers of the trends. If the observations mainly reflect local-scale processes, then factors such as topography, local temperature, and wind patterns likely dominate. Conversely, if the variations are representative over larger spatial scales, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation may be more significant. For reference, the authors may consult methodologies such as those presented by Zhai et al. (2023) or similar studies.
- While the authors attempted to link SAM and ENSO to variations in snow accumulation, mechanistic explanations are currently lacking. It is recommended that the authors expand the results or discussion section to clarify how different phases of SAM may affect snow accumulation through modifications in regional atmospheric circulation, moisture and heat transport, and katabatic wind activity. Similarly, they should address how ENSO (e.g., El Niño events) could establish teleconnections between tropical sea surface temperature anomalies and snow accumulation in Dronning Maud Land. In summary, a clearer description of the physical mechanisms linking these circulation modes to local accumulation is needed.
- Additional regional circulation patterns also play important roles in influencing snow accumulation (e.g., Clem et al., 2020; Zhai et al., 2023). These include features such as the Weddell Sea low and the South Atlantic high. It is recommended that the authors incorporate further analysis to substantiate the influence of these circulation features.
- The exceptionally high snow accumulation rates observed in 2021 and 2023 represent a compelling point of interest. These anomalies may be linked to extreme atmospheric circulation patterns, atmospheric river events, or enhanced meridional moisture transport pathways. Conducting preliminary analyses from these perspectives would significantly contribute to elucidating the mechanisms driving variability in snow accumulation.
- It would be more meaningful to compare the results with studies on changes in snow accumulation rates in nearby regions (or inland) in the discussion.
Minor comments:
- The figures could be improved as follows. Figure 1: The vector arrows are currently too small to be clearly visible. Additionally, the representation of the ice sheet could be enhanced by adopting a more conventional color palette instead of a uniform gray. It is recommended that the authors use a gradient color scale to better depict topographic variations.
- In the introduction, it is recommended that the authors further strengthen the overview of the current research of snow accumulation observations, such as the application of various observation methods, as well as the spatial distribution and temporal coverage of currently available data. The study by Wang et al. (2021) may be useful, as they compiled SMB datasets for the region.
Possible references:
Wang, Y., Ding, M., Reijmer, C. H., Smeets, P. C., Hou, S., & Xiao, C. (2021). The AntSMB dataset: a comprehensive compilation of surface mass balance field observations over the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Earth System Science Data, 13, 3057–3074.
Clem, K. R., Fogt, R. L., Turner, J., Lintner, B. R., Marshall, G. J., Miller, J. R., & Renwick, J. A. (2020). Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades. Nature Climate Change, 10(8), 762-770.
Zhai, Z., Wang, Y., Lazzara, M. A., Keller, L. M., & Wu, Q. (2023). Snow accumulation variability at the South Pole from 1983 to 2020, associated with central tropical Pacific forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(24), e2023JD039388.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5199-RC2
Data sets
High resolved snow height measurements at Neumayer Station, Antarctica (2010 et seq) Schmithüsen, H. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.958970
Time series of accumulation measurements from stake farm Neumayer Pegelfeld Süd,610 Ekström Ice Shelf, Antarctica, since 1991 Eisen, O., Reppert, V., Weller, R., and Jurányi, Z. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.972104
Continuous meteorological observations at Neumayer station (1982-03 et seq), Schmithüsen, H. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.962313
Snow height on sea ice and sea ice drift from autonomous measurements from buoy 2013S2, deployed during Antarctic Fast Ice Network 2013 (AFIN 2013) Nicolaus, M. and Hoppmann, M. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.887807
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