Sensitivity of ski resorts in the western US to climate change

Abstract. Winter recreation’s vulnerability to climate change, especially to warming, is widely recognized but few studies report quantitatively on the observed effects of climate change on ski resorts, in part because consistent and available data directly from ski resorts is scarce. Instead, we use proxy data from nearby SNOTEL (snow telemetry) and snow course sites to examine sensitivity of snow depth (HS) and snow water equivalent (SWE) to temperature and precipitation at 41 select ski resorts in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and California, during the ski season. Multiple regression on climate variables then permits statistical projections of future snow depth from projected changes in temperature and precipitation. We also use projected future SWE from a hydrology model with climate input from CMIP5 models with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios to evaluate future changes in snow depth at the selected ski resorts. While many resorts indeed face substantial declines in ski-season snow depth, many of those in Idaho and a few at high elevation are likely to be minimally affected. Mitigating factors include (a) projected increases in winter precipitation over the Rockies that partly offset the effects of warming; (b) low temperature sensitivity there and over high altitudes; (c) lower observed declines and temperature sensitivity for snow in winter compared with spring; and (d) many ski resorts are located in areas of high snowfall and/or span a considerable range of altitudes.