Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5015
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5015
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
23 Dec 2025
| 23 Dec 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
A State-Space Model for Monitoring Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Elevation Change from CryoSat-2
Abstract. We present a data-driven State-Space Model (SSM) for deriving monthly surface elevation changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet from CryoSat-2 radar altimetry (2011–2025). The model combines a Gaussian Markov Random Field for spatial dependence with an autoregressive process for temporal evolution, allowing seasonal cycles and long-term trends to emerge directly from the data.
The resulting 5 km gridded dataset captures both large-scale and local variations, showing widespread thinning along the margins and near-stable conditions in the interior. Validation against ICESat-2, Operation IceBridge, automatic weather stations, and laser-altimetry-based time series shows strong agreement and a 40–45% reduction in noise after smoothing.
This flexible and mission-independent approach provides monthly, uncertainty-quantified elevation change records that enhance understanding of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics and support long-term, multi-sensor monitoring of its contribution to sea-level rise.
How to cite. Andersen, N. H., Simonsen, S. B., Nielsen, K., Winstrup, M., Vandecrux, B., Gao, H., Csatho, B., Schenk, A., and Sandberg Sørensen, L.: A State-Space Model for Monitoring Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Elevation Change from CryoSat-2, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5015, 2025.
Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of The Cryosphere.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.Download & links
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Status: open (until 03 Feb 2026)
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5015', Jichang Shen, 28 Dec 2025
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This preprint stands out for its innovative use of a GMRF in processing CryoSat-2 altimeter data, which effectively captures spatiotemporal dependencies to derive robust monthly SEC estimates, even in regions with sparse sampling. However, a notable gap is the lack of direct intercomparison with public datasets such as Zhang et al.’s (2022, ESSD) and Khan et al.’s (2025, ESSD) products (the corresponding references for these two datasets are both cited in this article). Such a comparison would validate trends, strengthen credibility, and highlight the 3D-ECM’s unique value, enhancing the work’s impact upon formal publication.ReplyCitation: https://doi.org/
10.5194/egusphere-2025-5015-CC1
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Natalia H. Andersen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
DTU Space, Elektrovej 328, 2800 Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
Sebastian B. Simonsen
DTU Space, Elektrovej 328, 2800 Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
Karina Nielsen
DTU Space, Elektrovej 328, 2800 Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
Mai Winstrup
DTU Space, Elektrovej 328, 2800 Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
Baptiste Vandecrux
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Department of Glaciology and Climate, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark
Department of Earth Sciences, University at Buffalo, 413 Hochstetter Hall, Buffalo NY 14260, United States
Beata Csatho
Department of Earth Sciences, University at Buffalo, 413 Hochstetter Hall, Buffalo NY 14260, United States
Anton Schenk
Department of Earth Sciences, University at Buffalo, 413 Hochstetter Hall, Buffalo NY 14260, United States
Louise Sandberg Sørensen
DTU Space, Elektrovej 328, 2800 Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
Short summary
We developed a new statistical approach to track monthly changes in the surface height of the Greenland Ice Sheet using radar data from the CryoSat-2 satellite (2011–2025). The method lets seasonal and long-term variations emerge directly from the data, creating a consistent record of elevation change that helps reveal how Greenland responds to ongoing climate change.
We developed a new statistical approach to track monthly changes in the surface height of the...