Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4815
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4815
15 Oct 2025
 | 15 Oct 2025

Marine particles and their remineralization buffer future ocean biogeochemistry response to climate warming

Joeran Maerz, Katharina D. Six, Soeren Ahmerkamp, and Tatiana Ilyina

Abstract. Transport and fate of particulate organic carbon (POC) and nutrients through marine particles co-determine the future response of ocean biogeochemistry and oceanic carbon uptake under climate warming. This makes the parametrization of the biological carbon pump in Earth system models (ESMs) an important model component and motivates us to compare a recently developed new sinking scheme (M4AGO; Maerz et al. 2020) to the current CMIP6 default Martin curve-like sinking scheme in MPI-ESM1.2-LR (see Mauritsen et al. 2019) under the future shared socio-economic pathway high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5. In their global response, the two model versions are similar, showing a decrease of integrated net primary production between the historical (1985–2014) and future (2070–2099) period of about 8.1 % and 9.7 % for the CMIP6 and M4AGO version, respectively. However, the models response differs latitudinally. In M4AGO, the temperature-dependent remineralization offsets the future increase in sinking velocity caused by a higher CaCO3 to POC ratio in the low latitudes. There, M4AGO thus buffers the export loss of nutrients to the mesopelagic, visible in little future changes of the export to net primary production ratio (the p ratio), while the CMIP6 version shows more pronounced changes with regionally declining or increasing p ratio. In the Arctic Ocean, the projected future increase of net primary production in the CMIP6 version is diminished with M4AGO through its higher POC transfer efficiency in high latitude regions. Hence, the more mechanistic and to environmental changes-responding M4AGO scheme shows a stronger buffering regional response to climate warming than the CMIP6 model version. The higher transfer efficiency also impinges on higher CO2 uptake in high latitude regions while the tropical regions turn later into a net sink with M4AGO compared to the standard CMIP6 version. Next to ballasting, we identified the particle microstructure as vigorous determinant for future changes of POC sinking velocity. Microstructure co-determines particle porosity and particle density. Processes governing the microstructure thus can be regarded as decisive to understand for reducing uncertainty of future POC fluxes.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

11 Mar 2026
Marine particles and their remineralization buffer future ocean biogeochemistry response to climate warming
Joeran Maerz, Katharina D. Six, Soeren Ahmerkamp, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 23, 1897–1929, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1897-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1897-2026, 2026
Short summary
Joeran Maerz, Katharina D. Six, Soeren Ahmerkamp, and Tatiana Ilyina

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4815', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Nov 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Joeran Maerz, 30 Jan 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4815', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Dec 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Joeran Maerz, 30 Jan 2026

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4815', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Nov 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Joeran Maerz, 30 Jan 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4815', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Dec 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Joeran Maerz, 30 Jan 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (02 Feb 2026) by Olivier Sulpis
AR by Joeran Maerz on behalf of the Authors (17 Feb 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (19 Feb 2026) by Olivier Sulpis
AR by Joeran Maerz on behalf of the Authors (26 Feb 2026)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

11 Mar 2026
Marine particles and their remineralization buffer future ocean biogeochemistry response to climate warming
Joeran Maerz, Katharina D. Six, Soeren Ahmerkamp, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 23, 1897–1929, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1897-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1897-2026, 2026
Short summary
Joeran Maerz, Katharina D. Six, Soeren Ahmerkamp, and Tatiana Ilyina
Joeran Maerz, Katharina D. Six, Soeren Ahmerkamp, and Tatiana Ilyina

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Short summary
CO2 taken up by marine algae can escape ocean surface waters through subsequent particle formation and sinking. Representing this biological carbon pump (BCP) in Earth system models remains challenging and poses uncertainties for future projections. We show that an advanced BCP representation regionally buffers ocean biogeochemistry compared to a classical approach while both respond globally similar to climate warming. Particle microstructure turns out as a key uncertainty for sinking fluxes.
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