Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2

Abstract. While Arctic amplification is a robust feature of both observed and projected climate change, projections of Arctic climate change are characterized by substantial uncertainty. To better understand the drivers of this uncertainty, we performed a coordinated set of fully coupled experiments with the second version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) in which selected processes of key importance for the Arctic climate have been modified. They include improved representation of (1) mixed-phase clouds, (2) eddy processes in the upper ocean, (3) Greenland ice-sheet coupling, (4) snow on sea ice processes, and (5) ozone chemistry. For each modification, we carried out sensitivity experiments following the protocols for the CMIP6 historical simulation and a future high-emissions scenario (ssp585). This results in an ensemble of modified historical and ssp585 experiments.

The sensitivity experiments all demonstrate enhanced future Arctic warming compared to the unmodified historical and ssp585 experiments. The amplitude of the additional warming moreover varies considerably, with the difference between the experiment with the strongest and weakest Arctic-mean warming reaching ~9 K during the winter season by the end of the 21st century. The warming signal is dominated by a relatively uniform Arctic warming which, according to the CMIP6 ssp585 long-term extension, starts to equilibrate during the 22nd century. Surface temperature decomposition shows that winter warming is primarily driven by enhanced greenhouse effect due to increased cloud cover, near-surface humidity, and the resulting increase in downwelling longwave radiation. The temperature response is most pronounced in the sea-ice retreat regions, with the greatest variability between experiments occurring on the Atlantic side. We also identify an emergent constraint, linking changes in Arctic surface temperatures to changes in ocean heat fluxes and sea-ice area. This highlights the importance of correctly representing (contemporary) Northern Hemisphere sea ice when assessing future projected Arctic warming.