Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4658
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4658
07 Oct 2025
 | 07 Oct 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).

Comparing the seasonal predictability of the Tropical Pacific variability in EC-Earth3 at two horizontal resolutions

Aude Carréric, Pablo Ortega, Roberto Bilbao, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Vladimir Lapin, Ferran López-Martí, Markus Donat, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes

Abstract. Seasonal predictability is an active field of research given its strong potential to guide decision-making in many societal and economic sectors. In this study, we compare the predictive skill of the climate model EC-Earth3 at two different horizontal resolutions. The standard resolution – SR – (high resolution – HR) is of around 70 (40) km in the atmosphere and 100 (25) km in the ocean. Both forecast systems are initialised in the same way in May and cover the period 1990–2015, with a forecast period of 8 months. We focus on the Tropics, and particularly on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the main source of predictability at seasonal timescales. Statistically significant improvements are found in HR with respect to SR for predicting ENSO. However, the predictive skill drops quickly in the Western Equatorial Pacific (WEP) in both configurations, more pronouncedly in SR. The poor skill in the WEP is directly linked to a misrepresentation of its relationship with the ENSO region, which is ultimately associated with an overly strong westward extension of ENSO-related variability, a model error more pronounced in SR. This erroneous spatial simulation of ENSO is related to the mean cold bias of the cold tongue, which progressively extends westwards with the forecast time. We show that an overly weak air-sea coupling, more pronounced in SR, prevents the model from simulating the correct ENSO development. We also show that a better simulation of the Atlantic Nino teleconnection with the tropical Pacific in HR compared to SR leads to better ENSO prediction. Improving model resolution can increase the predictive skill of forecast systems by improving the simulation of the mean state and atmospheric teleconnections. However, ENSO simulation errors and mean state biases need to be better understood to improve forecasts, in particular in the WEP, a region of convection particularly important for teleconnections to extratropics.

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Aude Carréric, Pablo Ortega, Roberto Bilbao, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Vladimir Lapin, Ferran López-Martí, Markus Donat, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes

Status: open (until 18 Nov 2025)

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Aude Carréric, Pablo Ortega, Roberto Bilbao, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Vladimir Lapin, Ferran López-Martí, Markus Donat, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Aude Carréric, Pablo Ortega, Roberto Bilbao, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Vladimir Lapin, Ferran López-Martí, Markus Donat, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
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Latest update: 07 Oct 2025
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Short summary
The paper assessed the impact of horizontal resolution of the EC-Earth climate model on its ability to predict El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The high-resolution simulations show better forecast skill linked to improved simulation of the tropical Pacific mean state and teleconnections with the equatorial Atlantic. However, the remaining poor skill in the western Pacific highlights the importance of better understanding ENSO simulation errors and mean state biases to improve forecasts.
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