Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Landfalling tropical cyclones significantly reduce Bangladesh's energy security
Kieran M. R. Huntand Hannah C. Bloomfield
Abstract. Bangladesh's rapidly expanding, yet fragile, electricity grid is highly exposed to tropical cyclones. However, the operational impacts of these storms on the power system are not well quantified. Here, we combine daily metered electricity demand data for Bangladesh's nine power zones with meteorological and hazard datasets over the last decade. We find that landfalling tropical cyclones cause an average 20 % reduction in national electricity supply, with coastal zones disproportionately affected, experiencing drops of up to 38 %. Analysis of case studies shows that high winds, storm surge, and extreme precipitation are all key contributors to these outages. While Bangladesh imports power from neighbouring West Bengal (India) to strengthen security, we show that cyclone impacts are often correlated across both regions, limiting the reliability of this backup during major events. We highlight the need for continued investment in climate-resilient energy infrastructure in the region, as well as adaptation to such extremes, which are projected to become more severe with climate change.
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Manuscript Title: Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Significantly Reduce Bangladesh’s Energy Security
Summary of the Manuscript
This manuscript examines the impact of landfalling tropical cyclones on Bangladesh’s energy security, using a combination of daily metered electricity demand data for Bangladesh’s nine power zones with meteorological and hazard datasets. The authors argue that landfalling tropical cyclones cause an average 20% reduction in national electricity supply, with coastal zones disproportion affected, experiencing drops of up to 38%. Finally, authors highlight the need for continued investment in climate-resilient energy infrastructure in the region, as well as adaptation to such extremes, which are projected to become more severe with climate change. The topic is timely, policy-relevant, and empirically important. The paper makes a valuable contribution to understanding the climate–energy nexus in a highly vulnerable country. It addresses a critical gap — the intersection of DRR and energy security — particularly within the West Bengal and Bangladesh context. However, the manuscript requires substantial clarification, data transparency, and necessary refinement to reach publishable standard. The argument is compelling, but methodological rigor and framing could be improved to meet international expectations.
Major comments
The concept of “energy security” is not clearly defined in introduction section.
Authors should clarify how cyclone impacts are mapped onto diverse dimensions.
The introduction overlooks key comparative studies: for example, Southeast Asian energy systems and Bangladesh’s coastal energy vulnerability. How this study can contribute to the existing literature?
In method part, causal relationship using robust statistics is missing. I suggest to specify whether regression, correlation, or event-based impact assessment.
I also found some missing details about data sources, for example, Cyclone dataset (JTWC, IMD, or BMD?); Energy data (BPDB, WAPDA, or open-source?); Time resolution (monthly, daily, event-based?
I suggest that spatial analysis (GIS or remote sensing) could greatly strengthen the results.
In the discussion section, this study lacks scholarly discussion for example, how landfalling tropical cyclones significantly impacted Bangladesh’s energy security
The conclusion is currently descriptive and too much.
What is the key message for reader? Authors should connect findings to SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).
Minor Comments
Authors clarify units for energy loss (MW vs. MWh).
I suggest to provide cyclone names and years in a new Table for reader clarity.
Authors should improve figure readability (especially cyclone track map).
Rationale: The manuscript is promising but needs clearer methodological articulation, standardized definitions of energy security, and stronger quantitative validation. Addressing these issues will make the paper suitable for publication in this journal.
Bangladesh’s power grid is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones. Using nearly a decade of daily data, we show landfalling storms cut national electricity supply by about 20 % on the day, with coastal regions hit hardest (up to 38 %). Damage comes from high winds, storm surge and heavy rain. Power imports from India often can’t help during big events because both areas are struck together. Building sturdier, climate-resilient infrastructure is essential.
Bangladesh’s power grid is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones. Using nearly a decade of...
Manuscript Title: Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Significantly Reduce Bangladesh’s Energy Security
Summary of the Manuscript
This manuscript examines the impact of landfalling tropical cyclones on Bangladesh’s energy security, using a combination of daily metered electricity demand data for Bangladesh’s nine power zones with meteorological and hazard datasets. The authors argue that landfalling tropical cyclones cause an average 20% reduction in national electricity supply, with coastal zones disproportion affected, experiencing drops of up to 38%. Finally, authors highlight the need for continued investment in climate-resilient energy infrastructure in the region, as well as adaptation to such extremes, which are projected to become more severe with climate change. The topic is timely, policy-relevant, and empirically important. The paper makes a valuable contribution to understanding the climate–energy nexus in a highly vulnerable country. It addresses a critical gap — the intersection of DRR and energy security — particularly within the West Bengal and Bangladesh context. However, the manuscript requires substantial clarification, data transparency, and necessary refinement to reach publishable standard. The argument is compelling, but methodological rigor and framing could be improved to meet international expectations.
Major comments
Minor Comments
Rationale:
The manuscript is promising but needs clearer methodological articulation, standardized definitions of energy security, and stronger quantitative validation. Addressing these issues will make the paper suitable for publication in this journal.