Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4167
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4167
29 Sep 2025
 | 29 Sep 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).

Projecting the evolution of the Northern Patagonian Icefield until the year 2200

Marius Schaefer, Ilaria Tabone, Ralf Greve, Johannes Fürst, and Matthias Braun

Abstract. The Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI), Chile, is the second-largest ice mass in the Southern Hemisphere outside Antarctica and a major remnant of the Patagonian ice sheet from the Last Glacial Period. It is located in the Southern Andes, which is among the world's glacierized regions with the most negative specific mass balances. The NPI is a highly dynamic system, with high amounts of accumulation and ablation, and includes Glaciar San Rafael, the tidewater calving glacier closest to the equator.

Using the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS, we reproduce the dynamical state and observed changes of the NPI in the early 21st century and project its evolution until 2200. Calving is represented by prescribing an additional mass loss for ocean-terminating grid cells (Glaciar San Rafael). A spin-up experiment generates an icefield comparable to conditions around the year 2000, which we then force with present-day and projected surface mass balance under climate scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5.

In the committed mass loss run, the NPI stabilizes by 2100 at around 75 % of its current volume. Under climate change scenarios, mass loss accelerates from the mid-21st century and continues until 2200, despite assuming constant climate during the final century. The NPI exhibits a response time of approximately 100 years, highlighting the need for caution when interpreting current trends. By 2200, the remaining volume strongly depends on the emission pathway: 64 ± 10 % under SSP1-2.6 versus 32 ± 14 % under SSP5-8.5. These results confirm that for Patagonia, as found elsewhere, every fraction of a degree of warming matters.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of The Cryosphere.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Marius Schaefer, Ilaria Tabone, Ralf Greve, Johannes Fürst, and Matthias Braun

Status: open (until 10 Nov 2025)

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Marius Schaefer, Ilaria Tabone, Ralf Greve, Johannes Fürst, and Matthias Braun
Marius Schaefer, Ilaria Tabone, Ralf Greve, Johannes Fürst, and Matthias Braun

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Short summary
The Northern Patagonian Icefield is the second largest ice mass of South America, located at moderate latitudes. Using an ice-flow model which uses available atmosphere data as input and explicitly models iceberg discharge, we assess its evolution. With present climate, it will lose about 25 % of its mass during this century. Climate change strongly accelerates losses and under Paris Agreement compliance it is 36 % until 2200 and up to 68 % under a business-as-usual fossil fuel scenario.
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