Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079
30 Sep 2025
 | 30 Sep 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).

From Farm to Planet: The InSEEDS World-Earth Model for Simulating Transitions to Regenerative Agriculture

Luana Schwarz, Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Max Bechthold, Werner von Bloh, Sara M. Constantino, Dieter Gerten, Jobst Heitzig, Ronja Hotz, Leander John, Christoph Müller, Johan Rockström, and Jonathan F. Donges

Abstract. Industrialised agriculture and its externalisation of environmental costs have contributed to accelerating ecological degradation and the transgression of planetary boundaries. Vice versa, agriculture is increasingly affected by ecological pressures such as climate change. While sustainable approaches like Regenerative Agriculture offer promising alternatives, most studies focus on the biophysical impacts of individual practices and overlook the complex dynamics underlying their large-scale adoption. In particular, the roles of social-ecological feedbacks, tipping dynamics, and transformative change remain underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce the InSEEDS integrated World-Earth model – a novel co-evolutionary approach to simulating agricultural transitions that couples a process-based vegetation model (LPJmL) with an agent-based model of farmer decision-making. InSEEDS integrates socio-cultural, social-ecological, and biophysical dynamics and can be applied from local to global scales. Distinguishing between a traditionalist and pioneer farmer types, we analyse the adoption dynamics of conservation tillage as a key practice of Regenerative Agriculture. We find that social networks, ecological heterogeneity, and decision-making inertia play a critical role in determining transition dynamics. Adoption of conservation tillage yields overall positive effects on soil carbon and crop yield, though outcomes are strongly context-dependent. InSEEDS provides a foundational tool that opens up avenues for understanding complex human-environment interactions in land-use transformations and advancing the next generation of World-Earth models.

Competing interests: Some authors are members of the editorial board of Earth System Dynamics.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Luana Schwarz, Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Max Bechthold, Werner von Bloh, Sara M. Constantino, Dieter Gerten, Jobst Heitzig, Ronja Hotz, Leander John, Christoph Müller, Johan Rockström, and Jonathan F. Donges

Status: open (until 11 Nov 2025)

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Luana Schwarz, Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Max Bechthold, Werner von Bloh, Sara M. Constantino, Dieter Gerten, Jobst Heitzig, Ronja Hotz, Leander John, Christoph Müller, Johan Rockström, and Jonathan F. Donges

Model code and software

Model of integrated social-ecological resilient land systems (InSEEDS) (v0.2.3). J. Breier et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14265856

copan:LPJmL, an advanced World-Earth modeling framework extending copan:CORE, integrating LPJmL as the Earth system interface for comprehensive social-ecological simulations. (v1.0.0) J. Breier et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14246191

Luana Schwarz, Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Max Bechthold, Werner von Bloh, Sara M. Constantino, Dieter Gerten, Jobst Heitzig, Ronja Hotz, Leander John, Christoph Müller, Johan Rockström, and Jonathan F. Donges

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Short summary
We present a novel global model that links farmer decisions with ecological processes to explore how agricultural systems co-evolve. Unlike previous tools, it captures feedbacks between society and nature at up-to planetary scale. We find that conservation practices can restore soil health and support stable harvests. Adoption spreads through learning and norms, showing how regeneration at the farm scale can ripple outward, contributing to global sustainability and Earth system resilience.
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