Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3988
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3988
02 Oct 2025
 | 02 Oct 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Drought propagation in the Rhine River basin and its impact on navigation using LAERTES-EU regional climate model dataset

Andrea L. Campoverde, Uwe Ehret, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto

Abstract. Drought events have become more frequent in Europe over the past decades. The shipping and industrial sectors are severely affected by these events, e.g., due to significant reductions in water levels in the Rhine River and interruptions in the transport of goods. Hydrological droughts in the Rhine closely resemble extreme meteorological droughts identified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over both short and long periods. However, the possibility of determining low water level events using non-observed meteorological data, e.g., from large regional climate model datasets, and their implication on navigation has not yet been explored. The main objective of this study is to utilize the Large Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations for Europe (LAERTES-EU) to search for extreme drought years, to assess their contribution to discharge, and to determine possible navigation restrictions on the waterways in the Rhine. We employed a methodology that evaluates the SPEI values to identify meteorological drought, which are then used to obtain discharge values by applying the hydrological model WRF-Hydro. The top 10 most extreme meteorological drought events in the LAERTES-EU dataset are considered in this study, assessing drought propagation by using the SPEI. These events displayed different degrees of severity in terms of duration and reduction of the streamflow as measured by the navigable threshold GlQ20 than the extreme drought observed in 2018. In the selected gauges, several LAERTES-EU events were ranked above 2018 when comparing them with the historical records in terms of mean discharge of the period June–November. These results imply that, even under today's climatic conditions, the streamflow values in the Rhine can be substantially worse than in 2018, generating costly economic and ecological consequences if mitigation measures are not implemented.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Andrea L. Campoverde, Uwe Ehret, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto

Status: open (until 13 Nov 2025)

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Andrea L. Campoverde, Uwe Ehret, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Andrea L. Campoverde, Uwe Ehret, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
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Short summary
Droughts are becoming more common in Europe. Our study used vast climate data to uncover extreme unseen low-water events. These simulations show the potential droughts becoming more severe and lasting longer than the damaging 2018 event, which impacted shipping and industry. This research highlights the urgent need for adaptation measures to prevent costly economic and ecological consequences for the Rhine's waterway.
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