Geospatial Analysis of Fault–Epicenter Dynamics in Bangladesh and Adjacent Regions Using Remote Sensing and Statistical Modeling

Abstract. Bangladesh and its adjacent regions are situated at the junction of several tectonic plates and are hence highly susceptible to earthquakes. This study investigates the spatial dynamics between fault lines, their classifications, and earthquake epicenters in Bangladesh and its neighboring countries. With a high-density population, absence of urban planning, and inter-border seismic hazards, identifying the way fault types interact with seismic activity is crucial for an effective estimation of the hazard in this area.

Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (Band 10) satellite imagery was used for the detection of faults, followed by the extraction of lineaments using PCI Geomatica and spatial analysis in ArcMap 10.8. Fault lines were identified as four principal types: normal, reverse, left-lateral, and right-lateral, based on geometric and spatial features. Earthquake epicenter data between 1924 and 2024 were derived from the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Spatial autocorrelation analysis (Moran's I), Kruskal-Wallis test, Dunn's test, and multinomial logistic regression were used to examine fault-epicenter relationships.

Approximately 40,000 fault lineaments were identified. Moran's I index (0.298, p<0.000001) confirmed significant spatial clustering of epicenters and fault lines. Dunn's test demonstrated that reverse faults significantly differ from the others in terms of proximity to epicenters. Multinomial logistic regression revealed that earthquakes tend to be closer to normal (p = 0.042) and left-lateral faults (p = 0.016), whereas reverse faults (p = 0.676) did not exhibit significant differentiation based on proximity.

This work highlights the crucial need to incorporate fault types and epicenter spatial relationships into seismic hazard models. The results offer practical insight into regional earthquake risk mitigation, infrastructure design, and transboundary disaster preparedness in Bangladesh and adjacent regions.