Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3615
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3615
18 Aug 2025
 | 18 Aug 2025

Brief communication – Vent opening at Campi Flegrei: clues from dyke propagation patterns

Jacopo Selva and Nello Mangone

Abstract. Forecasting future vent opening position is fundamental for managing volcanic hazards, and is usually based on the spatial density of past vents or other crust weakness indicators. Here, a novel empirical approach inspired by dyke propagation models is applied to the Campi Flegrei caldera. Results show that dyke direction correlates with topographic peaks within 6 km from the caldera center, and propagation length exhibits two main peaks at 2 and 4 km, leading to a vent opening probability map with maxima well correlating with recent major seismicity and deformations.

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Jacopo Selva and Nello Mangone

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Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3615', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Sep 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3615', Anonymous Referee #2, 06 Oct 2025
Jacopo Selva and Nello Mangone
Jacopo Selva and Nello Mangone

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Short summary
Forecasting the potential position of future eruptions is fundamental for managing volcanic hazards. Here, we develop a new approach to identify the most likely positions for future eruptions based on the propagation of the magma that fed past eruptions. Its application to Campi Flegrei shows probability peaks at 2 and 4 km from the caldera center and in the direction of the topographic peaks within 6 km, with peaks that correlate well with recent seismicity and deformation patterns.
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