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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3615
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3615
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
18 Aug 2025
| 18 Aug 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Brief communication – Vent opening at Campi Flegrei: clues from dyke propagation patterns
Abstract. Forecasting future vent opening position is fundamental for managing volcanic hazards, and is usually based on the spatial density of past vents or other crust weakness indicators. Here, a novel empirical approach inspired by dyke propagation models is applied to the Campi Flegrei caldera. Results show that dyke direction correlates with topographic peaks within 6 km from the caldera center, and propagation length exhibits two main peaks at 2 and 4 km, leading to a vent opening probability map with maxima well correlating with recent major seismicity and deformations.
How to cite. Selva, J. and Mangone, N.: Brief communication – Vent opening at Campi Flegrei: clues from dyke propagation patterns, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3615, 2025.
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Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse (DiSTAR), University of Naples Federico II, Naples Italy
Nello Mangone
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse (DiSTAR), University of Naples Federico II, Naples Italy
Short summary
Forecasting the potential position of future eruptions is fundamental for managing volcanic hazards. Here, we develop a new approach to identify the most likely positions for future eruptions based on the propagation of the magma that fed past eruptions. Its application to Campi Flegrei shows probability peaks at 2 and 4 km from the caldera center and in the direction of the topographic peaks within 6 km, with peaks that correlate well with recent seismicity and deformation patterns.
Forecasting the potential position of future eruptions is fundamental for managing volcanic...