Bayesian Belief Network for ecosystem service assessment in estuarian geomorphology

Abstract. The diverse ecosystems of estuaries function as critical elements for shaping geomorphological patterns and delivering ecosystem services (ES). Rapid urbanization together with tourism developmental activities modified land use patterns which consequently transformed geomorphological structures and disrupted ecosystem processes. The analysis of geomorphology and land use changes in Vietnam's estuarine ecosystem assessment relies on Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modeling. Through detailed geomorphological mapping, identified six types which include alluvial land, young sand dunes, mature sand dunes, fore-sand dunes, shallow water areas, and deep water areas. During three decades the cultural ES values expanded as regulating ES diminished in areas witnessing major land use modifications involving mangrove forest conversions into agricultural territory and aquaculture operations. Two scenarios opposing were developed evaluate the trade-offs between: "Urbanization and tourism development" and "Preservation of natural landscapes". Geomorphic stability faces extreme risks from urbanization development patterns while regulating ES values decrease substantially, increasing vulnerability. The protection of natural landscapes through conservation produces stable geomorphological patterns while enhancing regulating ES values together with improved resilience. This research highlights the fundamental importance of geomorphology for sustainable development while helping managers create land use policies for estuaries that achieve economic growth alongside ecological protection.