Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3493
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3493
14 Aug 2025
 | 14 Aug 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Future hydro-climatic changes associated with global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios across Central-South Asia and the Tibetan Plateau

Azfar Hussain, Abolfazl Rezaei, Ping Zhu, Guanglang Xu, Chao Yang, Yan Ma, Tianye Cao, and Huizeng Liu

Abstract. The Central and South Asian Tibetan Plateau (CSATP) plays a vital role in regulating regional and downstream water availability. However, the region faces growing threats from global warming-induced hydroclimatic changes. This study investigates the hydro-climatic changes in the CSATP region under two future (2071–2100) scenarios of high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (SSP5-8.5) and the combined impact of GHG with stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), relative to present-day conditions (2015–2035). The temperature, precipitation, real evapotranspiration (RET), available water (AW), runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), and leaf area index (LAI) are assessed using model simulations from CESM2-WACCM. These variables exhibit widespread intensification, with significant increases in temperature, precipitation, runoff, and LAI, particularly in eastern central Asia (ECA) and South Asia (SA), accompanied by enhanced seasonal amplitudes and earlier runoff peaks. These shifts indicate stronger seasonality and heightened extremes across the land surface. In contrast, the Geo SSP5-8.5 1.5 (here called Geo-SAI) scenario effectively reduces temperature and dampens the seasonal amplitude of TWS, runoff, RET, and precipitation, thereby counteracting many GHG-emission induced changes. However, Geo-SAI also amplifies seasonal variability in SM and vegetation (LAI), especially in ECA and the Tibetan Plateau (TP), revealing its regionally heterogeneous impacts on land–atmosphere interactions under solar geoengineering. While Geo-SAI does not entirely negate the impacts, it provides a viable pathway for reducing extremes and fostering climate stability in vulnerable regions. These results highlight the potential of SAI to alleviate the adverse hydroclimatic effects of GHG-induced warming in CSATP.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Azfar Hussain, Abolfazl Rezaei, Ping Zhu, Guanglang Xu, Chao Yang, Yan Ma, Tianye Cao, and Huizeng Liu

Status: open (until 25 Sep 2025)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3493', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Aug 2025 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3493', Anonymous Referee #2, 26 Aug 2025 reply
    • CC1: 'Reply on RC2', Abolfazl Rezaei, 27 Aug 2025 reply
      • RC3: 'Reply on CC1', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 Aug 2025 reply
Azfar Hussain, Abolfazl Rezaei, Ping Zhu, Guanglang Xu, Chao Yang, Yan Ma, Tianye Cao, and Huizeng Liu
Azfar Hussain, Abolfazl Rezaei, Ping Zhu, Guanglang Xu, Chao Yang, Yan Ma, Tianye Cao, and Huizeng Liu

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Short summary
We studied how future climate change and a potential cooling method called stratospheric aerosol injection could affect water availability in Central and South Asia and the Tibetan Plateau. Using climate model simulations, we found that this method could reduce extreme changes in temperature and water cycles caused by global warming. This suggests it may help protect water resources, though its effects vary by region and may not fully solve all climate challenges.
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