Emulating chemistry-climate dynamics with a linear inverse model

Abstract. Coupled chemistry–climate models (CCMs) are powerful tools for investigating chemical variability in the climate system, but high computational cost limits their use for hypothesis testing and adequately sampling variability on long timescales. Here, we present the first application of a linear inverse model (LIM) to emulate a CCM. A LIM is a lowdimensional empirical model that reproduces the CCM’s statistics and dynamics at low computational cost. By linearizing the CCM’s dynamics, the LIM captures coherent modes of variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), that describe the coupled evolution of physical and chemical fields. Deterministic seasonal forecasts of the LIM result in skillful predictions of physical and chemical variables at lead times up to a year, outperforming damped persistence models. We show that the LIM’s skill in chemical fields depends on its coupled chemistry–climate modes: forecasts without the ENSO dynamical mode show a substantial loss of skill, suggesting the importance of ENSO in driving predictable chemical variability. These results demonstrate that the LIM can efficiently emulate CCM dynamics. It offers a practical tool for testing hypotheses about the drivers of chemistry-climate interactions and may enable efficient chemical data assimilation in the future.