the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Temperature-based Diagnosis of the Gulf Stream Path Overestimates its Northward Shift in a Warming Ocean
Abstract. A northward shift in the Gulf Stream (GS) path is considered a fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and has been linked to recent ecosystem alterations in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. Temperature-based criteria, widely used as proxies for GS location, suggest a northward shift. This study uses high-resolution climate models to show that these criteria, especially those based on the North Wall, overestimate the shift under high-emission scenarios by a factor of two to three. In contrast, a sea surface height (SSH)-based criterion remains more closely aligned with the true GS path, providing a more reliable estimate. The rising seawater temperature biases isotherm-based assessments, creating a misleading indication of a GS migration. These results call into question the notion that warming in the northwest North Atlantic is causally related to a northward migration of the GS and emphasize the need for more robust indicators of its position.
Status: open (until 25 Oct 2025)
- RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3172', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Sep 2025 reply
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Summary
This manuscript discusses several indicators of the position of the Gulf Stream and finds that those based on following a specific isotherm at a specific depth (i.e., 15ºC at 200 m or 12ºC at 400) become biased northward relative to the maximum velocity core in models under warming scenarios. This result is perhaps a bit obvious, but it is worthwhile to make this point explicitly as well as quantify the size of the bias. The manuscript is clearly written and thoroughly documented. I am not convinced, however, that the location of the maximum velocity core is the best indicator for the “true” latitude of the Gulf Stream (see comment 1) and the statistical tests are not necessarily appropriate to the hypotheses being tested (see comment 2). The second comment should be straightforward to address and it is possible the first can be addressed by providing additional motivation in the introduction.
Specific Comments