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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3
06 Feb 2025
 | 06 Feb 2025

An extension of the WeatherBench 2 to binary hydroclimatic forecasts

Tongtiegang Zhao, Qiang Li, Tongbi Tu, and Xiaohong Chen

Abstract. Binary forecasts on hydroclimatic extremes play a critical part in disaster prevention and risk management. While the recent WeatherBench 2 provides a versatile framework for the verification of deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this paper presents an extension to binary forecasts on the occurrence versus non-occurrence of hydroclimatic extremes. Specifically, sixteen verification metrics on the accuracy and discrimination of binary forecasts are employed and scorecards are generated to showcase the predictive performance. A case study is devised for binary forecasts of wet and warm extremes obtained from both deterministic and ensemble forecasts generated by three data-driven models, i.e., Pangu-Weather, GraphCast and FuXi, and two numerical weather prediction products, i.e., ECMWF’s IFS HRES and IFS ENS. The results show that the receiver operating characteristic skill score (ROCSS) serves as a suitable metric due to its relative insensitivity to the rarity of hydroclimatic extremes. For wet extremes, the GraphCast tends to outperform the IFS HRES with the total precipitation of ERA5 data as ground truth. For warm extremes, the Pangu-Weather, GraphCast and FuXi tends to be more skilful than the IFS HRES within 3-day lead time but become less skilful as lead time increases. In the meantime, the IFS ENS tends to provide skilful forecasts of both wet and warm extremes at different lead times and at the global scale. Through diagnostic plots of forecast time series at selected grid cells, it is observed that at longer lead times, forecasts generated by data-driven models tend to be smoother and less skilful compared to those generated by physical models. Overall, the extension of the WeatherBench 2 facilitates more comprehensive comparisons of hydroclimatic forecasts and provides useful information for forecast applications.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

08 Sep 2025
An extension of WeatherBench 2 to binary hydroclimatic forecasts
Tongtiegang Zhao, Qiang Li, Tongbi Tu, and Xiaohong Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5781–5799, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5781-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5781-2025, 2025
Short summary
Tongtiegang Zhao, Qiang Li, Tongbi Tu, and Xiaohong Chen

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Mar 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Tongtiegang Zhao, 23 Mar 2025
  • CEC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3 - No compliance with the policy of Geosci. Model Dev.', Juan Antonio Añel, 21 Mar 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Tongtiegang Zhao, 23 Mar 2025
      • CEC2: 'Reply on AC1', Juan Antonio Añel, 23 Mar 2025
        • AC3: 'Reply on CEC2', Tongtiegang Zhao, 24 Mar 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3', Anonymous Referee #2, 24 Mar 2025
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC2', Tongtiegang Zhao, 27 Mar 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Mar 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Tongtiegang Zhao, 23 Mar 2025
  • CEC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3 - No compliance with the policy of Geosci. Model Dev.', Juan Antonio Añel, 21 Mar 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Tongtiegang Zhao, 23 Mar 2025
      • CEC2: 'Reply on AC1', Juan Antonio Añel, 23 Mar 2025
        • AC3: 'Reply on CEC2', Tongtiegang Zhao, 24 Mar 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3', Anonymous Referee #2, 24 Mar 2025
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC2', Tongtiegang Zhao, 27 Mar 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Tongtiegang Zhao on behalf of the Authors (07 Apr 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (14 Apr 2025) by Lele Shu
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (03 May 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (01 Jun 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (06 Jun 2025) by Lele Shu
AR by Tongtiegang Zhao on behalf of the Authors (08 Jun 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (17 Jun 2025) by Lele Shu
AR by Tongtiegang Zhao on behalf of the Authors (17 Jun 2025)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

08 Sep 2025
An extension of WeatherBench 2 to binary hydroclimatic forecasts
Tongtiegang Zhao, Qiang Li, Tongbi Tu, and Xiaohong Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5781–5799, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5781-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5781-2025, 2025
Short summary
Tongtiegang Zhao, Qiang Li, Tongbi Tu, and Xiaohong Chen
Tongtiegang Zhao, Qiang Li, Tongbi Tu, and Xiaohong Chen

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Short summary
The recent WeatherBench 2 provides a versatile framework for the verification of deterministic and ensemble forecasts. In this paper, we present an explicit extension to binary forecasts of hydroclimatic extremes. Sixteen verification metrics for binary forecasts are employed and scorecards are generated to showcase the predictive performance. The extension facilitates more comprehensive comparisons of hydroclimatic forecasts and provides useful information for forecast applications.
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