Environmental and economic impact of the potential eruptions of Imbabura (VEI = 2) and Cuicocha (VEI = 6) volcanoes in north-central Ecuador

Abstract. The present study aims to determine the physical and economic impact on Otavalo canton in north-central Ecuador out of the potential eruptive phase of the Imbabura (VEI = 2) and Cuicocha (VEI = 6) volcanoes. The current situation of Otavalo was identified in relation to the potential volcanic hazards of these two volcanoes through previous studies and field work. With geographic information on the given infrastructure of the area and the use of geospatial tools, maps of the Otavalo canton were prepared related to a variety of volcanic hazards but predominantly ash falls and pyroclastic flows from the two evaluated volcanoes in order to determine the physical impact. Furthermore, we determined the economic impact by using geographic information, volcanic hazard maps and economic cost analysis, with which the total economic losses were estimated. Contradictorily to the grade of the VEI, a total economic loss of only 235,524,287.89 USD has been yield in the canton of Otavalo in the case of an eventual eruption of the Cuicocha volcano and some 300,917,625.51 USD in the case of an eventual eruption of the Imbabura volcano. Subsequently, we developed the basis for a novel proposal of preventive measures in order to reduce the physical and economic impact in the studied area.