Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2950
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2950
21 Jul 2025
 | 21 Jul 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Impacts of reductions in anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases toward carbon neutrality on dust pollution

Shicheng Yan, Yang Yang, Lili Ren, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Lei Chen, Jianbin Jin, and Hong Liao

Abstract. To mitigate future global warming, many countries have implemented rigorous climate policies for carbon neutrality. Given some shared emission sources with greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosol particles and their precursor emissions are expected to be reduced as the consequences of global efforts in climate mitigation and environmental improvement, potentially inducing complex climate feedbacks. Here, we assess the large-scale impacts of reductions in anthropogenic GHGs and aerosol under a carbon neutral scenario in 2060 on dust emissions and concentrations over the low- to mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model. Our findings demonstrate a decline in atmospheric dust loading toward carbon neutrality (SSP1-1.9) relative to the high fossil fuel scenario (SSP5-8.5). Mechanistic analysis reveals counteracting modulation mechanisms: (i) Reductions in aerosols amplify surface downwelling shortwave radiation, convection and wind speed, thereby promoting dust emissions; (ii) GHGs reductions diminish the land-ocean thermal contrast and wind speed, suppressing dust emissions. The latter drives the future dust responses. These results highlight that carbon neutral strategies not only achieve climate mitigation goals and air quality improvements, but also generate synergistic benefits through dust pollution suppression.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Shicheng Yan, Yang Yang, Lili Ren, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Lei Chen, Jianbin Jin, and Hong Liao

Status: open (until 01 Sep 2025)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2950', Mónica Zamora Zapata, 11 Aug 2025 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2950', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Aug 2025 reply
Shicheng Yan, Yang Yang, Lili Ren, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Lei Chen, Jianbin Jin, and Hong Liao
Shicheng Yan, Yang Yang, Lili Ren, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Lei Chen, Jianbin Jin, and Hong Liao

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Short summary
In this study, we assess the impact of carbon neutrality by 2060 on dust emissions in the Northern Hemisphere using the Community Earth System Model. Our findings show that reductions in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols lead to decreased dust loading compared to high fossil fuel scenarios. While aerosol reductions promote dust, GHGs decreases reduce wind speeds, suppressing dust emissions. These results suggest that carbon-neutral policies mitigate climate change and reduce dust pollution.
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