Climate field reconstructions for the North Atlantic region of annual, seasonal and monthly resolution spanning CE 1241&ndash;1970

Sjolte, Jesper; Tao, Qin

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2911

Preprints

https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2911

Preprints

15 Jul 2025

| 15 Jul 2025

Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).

Climate field reconstructions for the North Atlantic region of annual, seasonal and monthly resolution spanning CE 1241–1970

Jesper Sjolte and Qin Tao

Abstract. The North Atlantic region is a key component of the climate system via large scale atmosphere and ocean circulation. Climate field reconstructions can provide a long-term context for ongoing climate change and contribute to our understanding of climate dynamics, impact of external forcings, and act as references for model evaluation and baseline for natural variability. There are distinct differences in North Atlantic climate variability between the seasons in terms of climate modes and amplitude of the variance. Constraining long-term climate variability in sub-annual resolution is therefore needed for a more complete understanding of the governing processes. In this study we present reconstructed climate in annual, seasonal and seasonal resolution based on a small high-quality network of proxy data combined with output from an isotope enabled climate model. Compared to earlier work we have improved the methodology to obtain better skill across a larger area and more realistic variance of the reconstructed variables which include 2m temperature (T2m), sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation amount. Here we validate the reconstructions against reanalysis data, observed SST and eight long-term records of observed temperature. The reconstructed temperature correlates with up to 0.71 for seasonal and 0.68 for annual data compared to reanalysis data, while the correlation is about 0.3 for monthly resolution. The skill for SLP shows the imprint of large-scale circulation for winter with more local pattern dominating for summer. This is also mirrored in the skill for precipitation. In addition, the reconstructed annual mean SST shows basin-wide skill for the North Atlantic, indicating relevance of the reconstruction to studies of atmosphere-ocean interaction. In summary, the results show the potential of assimilating a small high-quality network of proxy records.

Received: 26 Jun 2025 – Discussion started: 15 Jul 2025

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.

Download & links

Preprint (PDF, 3993 KB)

Supplement (7198 KB)

Download & links

Jesper Sjolte and Qin Tao

Status: open (extended)

Post a comment Subscribe to comment alert

RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2911', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Aug 2025 reply

Review of the study "Climate field reconstructions for the North Atlantic region of

annual, seasonal and monthly resolution spanning CE 1241-1970" by Jesper Sjolte and Qin Tao
This study presents new climate field reconstructions for the North Atlantic region spanning from 1241 to 1970 CE at annual, seasonal, and monthly resolutions, using a small network of proxy data combined with isotope-enabled climate model simulations. The authors reconstructed four key climate variables: 2-meter temperature, sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and precipitation. Validation against reanalysis data and long-term temperature observations shows strong correlations of up to 0.7 for seasonal and annual temperature data, though monthly resolution correlations were weak. The reconstructions successfully captured large-scale winter circulation patterns in sea level pressure and demonstrated basin-wide skill for North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, providing valuable long-term climate context for understanding natural variability.
Scientific Significance:

This manuscript makes a meaningful contribution to paleoclimate reconstruction by extending North Atlantic climate records back to 1241 CE with multi-resolution temporal coverage. While the geographic focus and general reconstruction approach build on established methods, the improved methodology, proxy data and sub-annual resolution data represent valuable advances.
Scientific Quality:

The scientific approach appears methodologically sound. The validation strategy is comprehensive, employing multiple independent datasets including reanalysis data, observed SST, and instrumental temperature records. However, at least for the monthly reconstruction I would suggest a validation with instrumental data sets for the 20th century.
Presentation Quality:

While the abstract provides a clear overview and the introduction is very well written, some parts of the main paper could be improved. For instance, proxy selection criteria could be better explained. Results and discussion could be separated better, e.g. ModE-RA results only appear in the discussion instead of the results.

Specific Comments:
1. I'm really skeptical about the monthly reconstruction in this study. ModE-RA winter temperatures at least in Europe should be well constrained by historical information and early instrumental measurements. How would Fig. 7 look for 20CR? Maybe that would be a figure for the supplement. Please also check the monthly reconstruction with gridded instrumental data sets for the 20th century. Maybe rather remove the monthly reconstruction from the paper and "monthly" from the title or discuss it more carefully.
2. How can you deal with 1 year dating uncertainty (line 80)? And how may wrongly dated proxies influence your entire study and data set? Did you consider comparing neighboring proxies with different lags to check for potential dating problems?
3. Why do you "use JJA for representing the growing season and the extended winter season (Nov-Apr) to represent the winter preceding the growing season"? In this setup May does not play any role. Why not also an extended summer growing season starting in May?
4. With this analog method you disturb the temporal evolution of the model simulations. Are the transitions from one year to the next year smooth in the ocean with its memory/autocorrelation? Especially in the monthly reconstruction I would imagine that this could be an issue.
5. In the results you ask the question "how many model analogues to use in the ensemble reconstruction". But in the methods section above you wrote that you "calculated the ensemble mean using a logarithmic weighting function". I understood that all members are included. Maybe, I just misunderstood something but please explain this more clearly.
6. Fig. 2: the JJA SLP reconstruction has negative correlations if you just move slightly out of the region covered by the proxy data. What could be the reason and would you consider shrinking the reconstruction region to the area covered by proxy data?

Small remarks:
Abstract:

Line 6: "seasonal and seasonal" should probably be "seasonal and monthly"
Introduction:

Line 19: "... data and while ..."should be without "and"

Line 27: "the main mode of wither variability" should be "winter variability"
Data Section:

Line 110: "reconstrcutions" should be "reconstructions"

Line 176: "emsemble members" should be "ensemble members"
Unclear English:

Introduction:

Line 51-52: "Well-dated, long-term seasonally resolved proxy data" maybe better "well-dated, seasonally resolved, long-term proxy data"?

Line 65: "creates biases the representation" should be "creates biases in the representation"?
Results Section:

Line 193: "This is coeval with results" - "coeval" is uncommon; "consistent with" would be clearer

Line 208: "skill of the reconstructing" should be "skill of the reconstruction"
Discussion:

Line 248: "Compared to the SEA18/20 reconstructions our new reconstruction" missing comma after "reconstructions"

Line 267-269: "as shown in SEA18/20 even a low number" missing comma after "SEA18/20"

Reply

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2911-RC1

Jesper Sjolte and Qin Tao

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2911-supplement

Data sets

Climate field reconstructions for the North Atlantic region of annual, seasonal and monthly resolution spanning CE 1241-1970 Jesper Sjolte and Qin Tao https://zenodo.org/records/15746008

Jesper Sjolte and Qin Tao

Viewed

Total article views: 900 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	Supplement	BibTeX	EndNote
857	30	13	900	19	36	43

HTML: 857
PDF: 30
XML: 13
Total: 900
Supplement: 19
BibTeX: 36
EndNote: 43

Views and downloads (calculated since 15 Jul 2025)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jul 2025	86	21	11	118
Aug 2025	328	6	2	336
Sep 2025	443	3	0	446

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Jul 2025)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jul 2025	86	21	11	118
Aug 2025	328	6	2	336
Sep 2025	443	3	0	446

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 898 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 898 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.

Country	#	Views	%

Latest update: 15 Sep 2025

Short summary

We have reconstructed past changes in North Atlantic climate by combining climate model output with tree-ring and ice core data. Our new data includes sea level pressure, temperature and precipitation on annual, seasonal and monthly time scales. The reconstruction captures changes in observed temperature over several hundred years across Greenland and Europe. This data can be used to study variations in climate and impacts of greenhouse gases, volcanic eruptions and variations in solar activity.


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0