Global Disaster Risk Assessment from Emergency Events Database (2013&ndash;2023)

Kong, Qingzhao; Zhu, Erqi

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2706

Preprints

https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2706

Preprints

01 Jul 2025

| 01 Jul 2025

Global Disaster Risk Assessment from Emergency Events Database (2013–2023)

Qingzhao Kong and Erqi Zhu

Abstract. This paper defines an Accumulated Risk Index (ARI) to quantify regional risk levels in a global perspective utilizing Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) from 2013 to 2023. Building on the World Risk Index (WRI) released from World Risk Report 2023, the ARI focuses more on major events caused by multiple natural hazards within 5°×5° latitude-longitude grids, and calculates their accumulative effects during the period. ARI results are presented in two forms including normalized global maps and index rankings of each grid to identify high-risk areas that warrant increased attention. To provide a data foundation for subsequent research at smaller scales, this paper integrates and supplements existing remote sensing images within high-risk areas, publishing them as an open-source 3H Dataset partitioned by grids after standardizing their formats. The unified imagery establishes a valuable resource for deeper insights and more precise analyses in future disaster risk research of developing countries.

Received: 07 Jun 2025 – Discussion started: 01 Jul 2025

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Qingzhao Kong and Erqi Zhu

Status: final response (author comments only)

RC1:
'Comment on egusphere-2025-2706', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 Jul 2025

The authors are to be commended for the substantial effort to undertake their study, using an events database from 2013 to 2023. However, this is a narrow time window for a proposed global multi-disaster risk assessment index using 5°×5° latitude-longitude grids.
The authors state that this narrow time window is for preliminary research. Using a threshold of 50 fatalities (Total Deaths), their study identifies 344 major disaster events for detailed statistical analysis. However, death count is an unreliable risk measure, since it fluctuates according to a number of factors such as time of day of event occurrence, and the effectiveness of hazard warnings.
For more meaningful results, the authors should consider a much longer time window, with a lower threshold for fatalities.

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2706-RC1
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Erqi Zhu, 06 Aug 2025
  
  We are grateful for the constructive and insightful comments provided by the referee. These comments helped us clarify key methodological aspects of our manuscript and inspired meaningful revisions. In response, we have carefully addressed each point in the attached response letter. Specifically, we provided detailed clarifications regarding the time window and the risk measure adopted in the study. In addition, we also revised the manuscript by adding a forward-looking statement at the end of the Conclusions section, outlining potential improvements in temporal coverage and indicator design. We hope the revised version meets your expectations and respectfully submit it for your further consideration.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2706-AC1
RC2:
'Comment on egusphere-2025-2706', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Aug 2025

The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2706/egusphere-2025-2706-RC2-supplement.pdf

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2706-RC2
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Erqi Zhu, 25 Aug 2025
  
  We sincerely thank the referee for the careful review and constructive feedback. The comments have been invaluable in improving the methodological rigor, clarity, and overall contribution of our manuscript. In the revised version, we have substantially clarified the objectives and practical relevance of the ARI, provided a coherent methodological workflow, and added justifications for threshold and grid-size choices. We also expanded the discussion to address uncertainties, robustness, and implications for disaster risk management, while refining the integration and supplement of remote sensing data to better align with the ARI framework. Detailed responses to each comment are provided in the attached reply letter. We are grateful for the referee’s guidance and hope that the revisions meet the expectations.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2706-AC2

Qingzhao Kong and Erqi Zhu

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Short summary

This study introduces a new way to measure disaster risk by combining country-level and local data, with a focus on recent impacts. The research aims to support fairer and more effective use of global aid and increase awareness of the growing risk from natural hazards, especially in vulnerable areas. A new open-access dataset is also shared to help future studies and encourage the use of satellite data in disaster research.


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