Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2649
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2649
25 Aug 2025
 | 25 Aug 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).

Simulating soil heat transfer with excess ice, erosion and deposition, guaranteed energy conservation, adaptive mesh refinement, and accurate spin-up (FreeThawXice1D)

Niccolò Tubini and Stephan Gruber

Abstract. Thawing permafrost with excess ground ice can cause surface subsidence, damage to infrastructure, and long-term environmental changes. Accurate simulation of the depth, timing, and magnitude of excess-ice melt is important but remains difficult due to nonlinear phase-change dynamics, limitations in model resolution, and the computational challenges of conserving energy over long timescales. Many models blur key features such as the depth of thaw fronts, leading to uncertainty in assessing related hazards.

To address this, we developed a one-dimensional heat-transfer model that can accurately represent the melting of excess ice along with changes in soil geometry due to erosion or deposition. Innovations include adaptive mesh refinement around the melting point, separate treatment of excess and pore ice, and a two-step spin-up routine that ensures thermal equilibrium in deep profiles. The model uses a semi-implicit scheme with a nested Newton solver that guarantees energy conservation and convergence at large time steps.

Test cases show that model resolution and regridding influence the timing and magnitude of surface subsidence and thaw penetration. Tracking permafrost change requires representing the dynamic ground-surface elevation and reporting measurements either relative to it or as heights above a fixed datum. Cases with erosion or deposition demonstrate that even modest changes to surface geometry can alter subsurface thermal regimes, and delay or accelerate ice melt.

FreeThawXice1D provides a reliable and extensible tool for research, model testing, and scenario analysis. Its robust numerics and accuracy make it suitable for improving the realism of long-term permafrost simulations and supporting adaptation decisions in cold regions.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Niccolò Tubini and Stephan Gruber

Status: open (until 11 Oct 2025)

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Niccolò Tubini and Stephan Gruber
Niccolò Tubini and Stephan Gruber

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Short summary
This research introduces a new model for simulating how melting ground ice in permafrost reshapes the land surface over time. It shows that small differences in soil and the depth where ice is found can cause large differences in how the ground sinks or rises. This helps improves our ability to predict future impacts on terrain, ecosystems, and infrastructure as the climate warms.
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