Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-221
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-221
03 Feb 2025
 | 03 Feb 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

The importance of stratocumulus clouds for projected warming patterns and circulation changes

Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Peer Nowack

Abstract. Stratocumulus clouds are thought to exert a strong positive radiative feedback on climate change, but recent analyses suggest this feedback is widely under-represented in global climate models. To assess the broader implications of this model error for the modeled climate change responses, we investigate the impact of Pacific stratocumulus cloud feedback on projected warming patterns, equilibrium climate sensitivity and the tropical atmospheric circulation under increased CO2 concentrations. Using the Community Earth System Model with modifications to enhance low cloud cover sensitivity to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in Pacific stratocumulus regions, we find increased tropical SST variability and persistence, a higher equilibrium climate sensitivity, an enhanced east–west warming contrast across the tropical Pacific, and a stronger slow-down of the Walker circulation under 4×CO2 conditions. Our findings are supported by inter-model relationships across CMIP6 4×CO2 simulations. These results underscore the importance of accurately representing cloud feedback in climate models to predict future climate change impacts not only globally, but also on a regional scale, such as warming patterns or circulation change.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Peer Nowack

Status: open (until 17 Mar 2025)

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Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Peer Nowack
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Peer Nowack

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Short summary
We explore how Pacific low-level clouds influence projections of regional climate change by adjusting a climate model to enhance low cloud response to surface temperatures. We find significant changes in projected warming patterns and circulation changes, under increased CO2 conditions. Our findings are supported by similar relationships across state-of-the-art climate models. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing clouds for predicting regional climate change impacts.
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