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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1805
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1805
11 Jun 2025
 | 11 Jun 2025

Evaluation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation

Lara Tobias-Tarsh, Chunyong Jung, Jiali Wang, Vishal Bobde, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, and V. Rao Kotamarthi

Abstract. This study employs a 20-year, convection-permitting (CP) regional climate model, forced by ERA5 reanalysis, to assess the representation and climatology of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. We demonstrate that, relative to observations from Hurricane Database version 2 (HURDAT2), the model better captures TC frequency, averaging 12.25 TCs a year compared to 12.5 in HURDAT2 and 7.45 in ERA5. The model also successfully resolves the upper tail of the observed TC intensity distribution, while ERA5 only resolves TCs of Category 2 or lower intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. By contrast, the model and ERA5 show comparable skill at resolving the overall distribution of TC central pressure, implying that minimum central pressure may be a skillful predictor of TC intensity for coarser datasets. Spatially, the CP model exhibits particular added value over data-sparse coastlines in Central America and the Caribbean, successfully resolving clusters of TC track density that are missing in ERA5. Finally, a composite analysis of the 10 strongest TCs in each dataset, along with a case study of Hurricane Isabel (2003), reveals that TCs in the CP model have realistic structural features of the TC inner core that are not apparent in ERA5, including a more compact and intense radius of maximum wind. This is likely due to the CP model’s enhanced capability to capture small-scale convection and storm structure. These improvements exemplify the represented CP model’s efficacy for TC-induced local-scale hazard preparedness, and risk assessment of critical infrastructure, especially in regions lacking existing high resolution climate data.

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Lara Tobias-Tarsh, Chunyong Jung, Jiali Wang, Vishal Bobde, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, and V. Rao Kotamarthi

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Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1805', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Jul 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1805', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Aug 2025
Lara Tobias-Tarsh, Chunyong Jung, Jiali Wang, Vishal Bobde, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, and V. Rao Kotamarthi
Lara Tobias-Tarsh, Chunyong Jung, Jiali Wang, Vishal Bobde, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, and V. Rao Kotamarthi

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Short summary
We use a high-resolution regional climate model to better understand hurricanes in the North Atlantic over the past 20 years. The model closely matches observed storm frequency and captures stronger storms more accurately than traditional datasets. It also shows better performance in areas with limited data, like the Caribbean. These results can help improve local storm preparedness and planning for critical infrastructure.
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