Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1639
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1639
05 May 2025
 | 05 May 2025

Dissolved organic carbon dynamics in a changing ocean: A COBALTv2–ESM2M coupled model analysis

Lana Flanjak, Aaron Wienkers, and Charlotte Laufkötter

Abstract. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) constitutes a major component of the marine carbon cycle, yet its present contributions to carbon export, and the response to future climate change remain poorly constrained. Using COBALTv2–ESM2M – GFDL's ocean biogeochemistry model COBALTv2 coupled to the ESM2M Earth System Model – we evaluate present-day DOC distribution and export and project their responses to a high-emission future scenario RCP8.5 to the year 2100.

Our model reproduces well the observed large-scale DOC patterns, with highest concentrations (~70–80 μmol C kg-1) in subtropical gyres and lower values (~40–50 μmol C kg-1) in subpolar and equatorial upwelling regions. Biological DOC production and remineralization rates are highest in nutrient-rich upwelling zones. The net DOC produced is then transported to the stratified oligotrophic gyres where DOC accumulates, thereby forming the observed global DOC distribution. Present-day global DOC export at 100 m is estimated at 1.6 PgC yr-1, accounting for about 25% of the total organic carbon (TOC) export modeled at that depth. By 1000 m, DOC export decreases sharply to 0.09 PgC yr-1, solely because microbial remineralization removes a significant fraction of DOC as it descends deeper into the water column. At 100 m, globally integrated mixing-mediated export is nearly twice that of advection, especially in boundary current regions and subpolar gyres where strong seasonal mixing occurs, whereas advection dominates in subtropical gyres via large-scale subduction of accumulated DOC. At 1000 m, however, advection dominates, particularly in the North Atlantic where deep-water formation facilitates DOC export. Under future warming, intensified stratification and reduced nutrient supply drive a net decline in global DOC production. Nevertheless, upper-ocean DOC concentrations increase slightly, underscoring the continued importance of physical transport in redistributing DOC. The model projects a ~6% reduction in DOC export at 100 m, driven primarily by weakened mixing, and a 25% reduction in advection-dominated deep export at 1000 m depth.

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Lana Flanjak, Aaron Wienkers, and Charlotte Laufkötter

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1639', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Jun 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Lana Flanjak, 15 Jul 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1639', Anonymous Referee #2, 24 Jun 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Lana Flanjak, 15 Jul 2025
Lana Flanjak, Aaron Wienkers, and Charlotte Laufkötter

Data sets

COBALTv2-ESM2M data for figures in manuscript Lana Flanjak https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15150328

Lana Flanjak, Aaron Wienkers, and Charlotte Laufkötter

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Short summary
We used a global ocean model to explore how dissolved organic carbon is produced and transported in the ocean, both under present-day and future climate conditions. Our results suggest that climate change will reduce the export of this carbon to deeper layers due to weaker ocean circulation and mixing. This highlights the importance of physical transport in shaping ocean carbon dynamics and its sensitivity to a warming climate.
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