How can we trust TROPOMI based Methane Emissions Estimation: Calculating Emissions over Unidentified Source Regions

Abstract. We propose a novel method for computing the effects of TROPOMI observational uncertainties on emissions calculation arising from the nonlinearity of the gradient terms and non-biased filtering in space and time. Application using TROPOMI XCH₄ data in clean areas of Western China with long-term WMO background observations quantifies a minimum detectable emission threshold of 1.8 μg/m²/s, lower than existing community thresholds using TROPOMI. By combining threshold-based and stochastic approaches that incorporates pixel-by-pixel and day-by-day XCH₄ uncertainties, we identify and filter physically unrealistic emission values in both space and time. The resulting emissions reveal both missing sources and a 5 % emission bias caused by the nonlinearity of the gradient term. Validation was performed by applying the method to the Permian Basin, where comparisons with airborne observations demonstrate the method’s ability to align with independent datasets. The importance and implications of our results are related to this being a new methodology for methane emissions estimate from TROPOMI which enables precise identification of emission sources and improved handling of observational noise, offering a more accurate framework for methane emission monitoring across diverse regions using existing satellite platforms. Our results yield a non-negative emissions dataset using an objective selection and filtration method, which include a lower minimum emissions threshold on all grids and reduction of false positives. Finally, the new approach can be adopted to other satellite platforms to provide a more robust and reliable quantification of emissions under data uncertainty that moves beyond traditional plume identification and background subtraction.