Polarization in Flood Risk Management? Sensitivity of norm perception and responsibility attribution to frequent flood experience

Abstract. In this study, we examine the relationship between frequent flood experience (FFE), norm perception, and responsibility attribution. Given that floods are assumed to occur more often in the future and that perceived norms and responsibility attribution are drivers of individual-level protective behavior against them, understanding these relationships is vital. The data for the current study come from a household survey conducted in flood-prone regions of the Federal State of Saxony (Germany) in 2020. We applied regression analyses to test for nonlinear relationships between FFE, responsibility attribution for flood risk management, and perception of social norms supporting private flood-protective behavior. In addition, we tested for moderating effects of these relationships. We identified three key findings. First, the relationship between experience and responsibility attribution follows a nonlinear path: as individuals experience multiple flood events, the gap between assigned responsibility to the self/the community vs. the city/the state widens. Changes in norm perceptions after frequent flood experience are less dynamic. Second, under consideration of interaction effects, we find increasing discrepancies in responsibility attribution and perception of social versus personal norms after the third flood event, depending on self-efficacy, control beliefs, and ingroup identification. Third, we observe a diverging trend between perceived norms for protective behavior and responsibility attribution to the self/the community. These findings suggest a potential polarization in flood risk management, shaped by the perceived ability to manage floods and the social environment.