Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-132
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-132
19 Feb 2025
 | 19 Feb 2025

The influence of Amazonian anthropogenic emissions on new particle formation, aerosol, cloud and surface rain

Xuemei Wang, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Daniel P. Grosvenor, and Hamish Gordon

Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions have been shown to affect new particle formation, aerosol concentrations, and clouds. Such effects vary with region, environmental conditions and cloud types. In the wet season of Amazonia, anthropogenic emissions emitted from Manaus, Brazil can significantly increase the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations compared to the background of mainly natural aerosols. However, the regional response of cloud and rain to anthropogenic emissions in Amazonia remains very uncertain. Here we aim to quantify how new particle formation, aerosol concentration, cloud and rain respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions in the Manaus region and to understand the underlying mechanisms. We ran the atmosphere-only configuration of the HadGEM3 climate model with a nested regional domain that covers most of the rainforest region (720 km by 1200 km with 3 km resolution) under several regional emission scenarios. The 7-day simulations show that, in the areas that are affected by anthropogenic emissions, when aerosol and precursor gas emissions are doubled from the baseline emission inventories, aerosol number concentrations increase by 13 %. The nucleation rate that involves sulfuric acid generally increases with pollution levels. However, near the source of the pollution, nucleation is suppressed due to high primary aerosol emission, resulting in smaller nucleation and Aitken mode aerosol number concentrations. We also found that doubling the anthropogenic emission can increase the cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) by 9 %, but cloud water mass and rain mass do not change significantly. Even very strong reductions in aerosol number concentrations by a factor of 4, which is an unrealistic condition, cause only 4 % increase in rain over the domain. If we assume our simulation has fine enough grid resolution and an accurate representation of the relevant atmospheric processes, the simulated weak response of cloud and rain would imply that the Amazonian convective environment is non-linear and resilient to the small changes in Nd that occur in response to localised anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

Competing interests: One of the authors is a member of the editorial board of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

03 Sep 2025
Weak influence of anthropogenic emissions on aerosol, cloud, and rain in the wet season of the Amazon rainforest
Xuemei Wang, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Daniel P. Grosvenor, and Hamish Gordon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9685–9717, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9685-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9685-2025, 2025
Short summary
Xuemei Wang, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Daniel P. Grosvenor, and Hamish Gordon

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-132', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Mar 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-132', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Apr 2025
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-132', Xuemei Wang, 21 May 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-132', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Mar 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-132', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Apr 2025
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-132', Xuemei Wang, 21 May 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Xuemei Wang on behalf of the Authors (21 May 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (21 May 2025) by Imre Salma
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (03 Jun 2025)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (06 Jun 2025) by Imre Salma
AR by Xuemei Wang on behalf of the Authors (17 Jun 2025)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

03 Sep 2025
Weak influence of anthropogenic emissions on aerosol, cloud, and rain in the wet season of the Amazon rainforest
Xuemei Wang, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Daniel P. Grosvenor, and Hamish Gordon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9685–9717, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9685-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9685-2025, 2025
Short summary
Xuemei Wang, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Daniel P. Grosvenor, and Hamish Gordon

Data sets

Modelled data Xuemei Wang, Ken S. Carslaw, Daniel P. Grosvenor, and Hamish Gordon https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7213371

Xuemei Wang, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Daniel P. Grosvenor, and Hamish Gordon

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Short summary
Anthropogenic emissions can influence aerosol particle number concentrations via new particle formation. Our model simulations predict around 10 % increase of the particle and cloud droplet number concentrations when doubling the emissions in the Manaus region in the Amazonian wet season. However, the corresponding changes in cloud water and rain mass are around 4 %. Such weak response implied that this convective environment is not sensitive to the localised anthropogenic emission changes here.
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