Satellite impact of Carrington-level geomagnetic storm particle fluxes and fluences

Abstract. The estimated recurrence rates of the most extreme space weather events, like the Carrington event of 1859, warrant investigations of their potential impact on modern satellite-based infrastructure. Our study is based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and radial diffusion to estimate worst-case particle fluxes and fluences of relativistic radiation belt (RB) electrons and solar energetic particles (SEPs) for a Carrington-level geomagnetic storm. We use Geant4 to assess the Total Ionizing Dose (TID), Single Event Upset (SEU) rates, and solar cell degradation as a result of such conditions. We find that the electron and proton fluxes exceed the fluxes experienced by the Van Allen probes during nominal conditions by more than an order of magnitude, leading up to 10 krad of TID behind 3 mm of aluminium equivalent shielding. This is equivalent to ten years of nominal operation on geosynchronous orbit and exceeds a century of nominal exposure on the orbit of the International Space Station. Our results show that the expected SEU rates in radiation-hardened satellite electronics would remain below one SEU per MByte per day, equivalent to the nominal rate received in the Van Allen belts. Satellites on lower orbits would experience an increase in SEU rates by up to four orders of magnitude compared to nominal conditions. For satellites using non-radiation hardened, off-the-shelf electronics, this would mean potentially disruptive SEU rates. We estimate up to 3 % reduction in solar cell power output assuming typical cover glass thicknesses, potentially shortening operational lifetimes or requiring mission adjustments. In conclusion, conservatively designed satellites using adequate shielding and radiation-hardened components would likely survive the outlined scenario, experiencing only accelerated ageing during the event. Satellites lacking adequate shielding or radiation-hardening would be disproportionately affected, emphasizing the importance of incorporating radiation resilience into future satellite designs and mission planning.