Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1197
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1197
28 Mar 2025
 | 28 Mar 2025

Atmospheric Dynamics Reduce Mid-latitude Heatwave Frequency under Idealized Climate Change Forcing

Wolfgang Wicker, Emmanuele Russo, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen

Abstract. Recent decades have seen a global increase in hot temperature extremes, yet the role of changes in the atmospheric circulation in driving this trend remains unclear. To better understand how atmospheric dynamics control extreme weather, we explore a mechanism that relates mid-latitude heatwave frequency to the storm track position in a suite of idealized model experiments with the dry dynamical core of the ICON model. The underlying relationship between the zonal phase speed of synoptic-scale waves, the latitude of the storm track, and the strength of the eddy-driven jet is assessed through spectral analysis of upper-tropospheric meridional wind. By comparing our experiments to reanalysis data, we find evidence that observed trends in the Southern Hemisphere circulation have contributed towards reducing the persistence of austral mid-latitude hot temperature extremes. This mechanism may also be relevant for the future evolution of extreme events in the Northern Hemisphere, where we see the joint influence of Arctic Amplification and the expansion of the tropics.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Weather and Climate Dynamics.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

23 Sep 2025
A poleward storm track shift reduces mid-latitude heatwave frequency: insights from an idealized atmospheric model
Wolfgang Wicker, Emmanuele Russo, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 965–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-965-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Wolfgang Wicker, Emmanuele Russo, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1197', Anonymous Referee #1, 26 Apr 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1197', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 May 2025
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1197', Wolfgang Wicker, 16 Jul 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1197', Anonymous Referee #1, 26 Apr 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1197', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 May 2025
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1197', Wolfgang Wicker, 16 Jul 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Wolfgang Wicker on behalf of the Authors (16 Jul 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (17 Jul 2025) by Silvio Davolio
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (17 Jul 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (05 Aug 2025)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (06 Aug 2025) by Silvio Davolio
AR by Wolfgang Wicker on behalf of the Authors (08 Aug 2025)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

23 Sep 2025
A poleward storm track shift reduces mid-latitude heatwave frequency: insights from an idealized atmospheric model
Wolfgang Wicker, Emmanuele Russo, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 965–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-965-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Wolfgang Wicker, Emmanuele Russo, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Wolfgang Wicker, Emmanuele Russo, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen

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Short summary
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent, but the contribution by atmospheric circulation changes is unclear. Experiments with an idealized model that simulates atmospheric dynamics, but excludes clouds, radiation, and moisture, show how a poleward storm track shift increases the eastward phase speed of Rossby waves and reduces mid-latitude heatwave frequency. New evidence suggests that this mechanism is already active in the Southern Hemisphere and may soon emerge in the Northern Hemisphere.
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