the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 07 Feb 2025
The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7
Abstract. The first version of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) coordinated key simulations exploring the role of individual forcings in past, current and future climate as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). The simulations have been used extensively in the literature for detection and attribution of long-term changes, constraining projections of climate change, extreme event attribution, and understanding drivers of past and future simulated climate changes. Attribution studies using DAMIP v1.0 simulations underpinned prominent assessments of human-induced warming in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. Here we describe the set of DAMIP v2.0 simulations, proposed for the next phase of CMIP, CMIP7. Detection and attribution studies rely on preindustrial control simulations and historical simulations which will be part of the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) set of simulations for CMIP7. In addition, DAMIP v2.0 identifies three highest priority single forcing experiments for CMIP7 to be run as Fast Track simulations in support of the Seventh Assessment Report of the IPCC – namely simulations with natural forcings only, anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases only, and anthropogenic aerosols only. Beyond this, the DAMIP v2.0 experimental design includes full column ozone-only simulations and land-use-only simulations, such that the set of individual forcings experiments, when considered together, represents the full set of historical forcings. While concentration driven simulations are prioritized for attribution of past changes, emissions-driven versions of the DAMIP experiments are also proposed to support understanding of the influence of carbon-cycle feedbacks on the simulated responses to individual forcings.
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Status: open (until 04 Apr 2025)
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-4086', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Mar 2025
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The manuscript describes the next phase of DAMIP (v2.0) as part of the CMIP7 contribution. The DAMIP suite of simulations make detection and attribution studies possible. The updates to the DAMIP since the predecessor (v1.0) from the CMIP6 cycle are substantial enough to warrant the new manuscript describing the new suite of simulations.
This manuscript is well written and is substantially ready for publication. However, there are improvements to the manuscript that can substantially improve the clarity and accessibility of the manuscript.These are minor in nature and the manuscript can be accepted for publication after these minor edits.
The following are suggested changes:
1. Line 83: The word "times" to appear after preindustrial.
2. Line 132: The concept of additivity should be introduces/explained more as it is not common knowledge.
3. Lines 134-137: This should be rephrased for clarity.
4. Lines 186-189: This should be rephrased for clarity.
5. Lines 241-245: Shorter sentences should be used for clarity.
6. Lines 404-406: Rephrase. Replace "not been completely true" with something along the lines of "there are differences".
7. Line 865: The figure 2 does not include any representation of the simulations with Medium scenario forcings up to 2035. The figure should be revisited as it is not obvious what the different boxes are (upper/lower as well as boxes with no connects to other boxes) The yellow boxes could be read in two ways - CMIP6 or Tier2. So better clarity is needed.Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086-RC1 -
AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Nathan Gillett, 17 Mar 2025
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Thanks to the reviewer for the positive review of the manuscript. We have responded to all the requests for changes and clarification of the text. The reviewer's comments are shown in bold below, and our responses are shown in plain text.
The following are suggested changes:
1. Line 83: The word "times" to appear after preindustrial.
Suggested change made.
2. Line 132: The concept of additivity should be introduces/explained more as it is not common knowledge.An example to explain the meaning of testing additivity has been added “For example, aerosol-only simulations and all-but-aerosol simulations can be used together with simulations including all forcings to test whether the response to aerosols and the response to other forcings add to give the response to all forcings combined (e.g. Simpson et al., 2023).”
3. Lines 134-137: This should be rephrased for clarity.
This sentence was complicated by the inclusion of an unnecessary condition concerning additivity. This has now been removed and the text has been modified to improve clarity. The sentence now reads “However, if the objective of an analysis is to characterize the response to one particular forcing, then individual forcing simulations will lead to reduced sampling uncertainties, because they do not require a difference between two sets of simulations to be taken. each of which has its own sampling uncertainties.”
4. Lines 186-189: This should be rephrased for clarity.This sentence was separated into two shorter sentences and modified to increase readability and improve clarity. This text now reads “hist-O3 simulations should not be carried out using models with interactive gas-phase chemistry. This is because ozone is simulated interactively in response to changes in ozone depleting substances, methane and other species in such models, and the concentrations of ozone depleting substances, methane and other species do not change in these hist-O3 simulations.”
5. Lines 241-245: Shorter sentences should be used for clarity.We have separated this text into shorter sentences and made other changes to improve clarity and readability. This text now reads “While much of the time evolution of biomass burning emissions has occurred as a result of human activity, the historical simulation includes observed year-to-year variations in biomass burning partly driven by natural variability. However, it is not easy to separate human-induced changes in biomass burning from naturally-induced changes. Therefore we request that modelling centres specify constant biomass burning emissions as in the piControl in this hist-nat simulation.”
6. Lines 404-406: Rephrase. Replace "not been completely true" with something along the lines of "there are differences".‘this has not been completely true’ replaced with ‘there have been some differences’.
7. Line 865: The figure 2 does not include any representation of the simulations with Medium scenario forcings up to 2035. The figure should be revisited as it is not obvious what the different boxes are (upper/lower as well as boxes with no connects to other boxes). The yellow boxes could be read in two ways - CMIP6 or Tier2. So better clarity is needed.The figure has been revised to state explicitly that the historical simulations are extended to 2035 using the Medium scenario. Text has also been added to caption to clarify this, as well as the meaning of the different boxes:
‘Blue boxes are Tier 1 experiments, yellow boxes are Tier 2 experiments, green boxes are Tier 3 experiments, and white boxes contain descriptive text. All historical simulations except historical-CMIP6 run from 1850 to 2035 using the Medium scenario forcings from 2022, while historical-CMIP6 runs from 1850 to 2035 using the SSP2-4.5 scenario from 2015. The historical or esm-historical simulation shown in the top row uses CMIP7 historical forcings which can be decomposed into the sets of forcings used in each of the simulations in the second row. Three of these simulations are extended using the Medium scenario from 2036 to 2100 as shown in the third row. The fourth row depicts two additional experiments that are complementary to those in the second row.’
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086-AC1
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Nathan Gillett, 17 Mar 2025
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