Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3954
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3954
03 Feb 2025
 | 03 Feb 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Analysis of Long-Term Changes in Extreme Waves in the Northwest Pacific Over the Past 60 Years

Yang-Ming Fan

Abstract. This study analyses wave height trends in the Northwest Pacific over the past 60 years and estimates design wave heights across various return periods to assess the resilience of marine and coastal structures to extreme wave events. Design wave height is a critical parameter for evaluating structural stability and safety, especially during typhoon season (May to October), when strong winds and rapid movements often trigger extreme waves, significantly impacting offshore structures, coastlines, and ports. To avoid underestimating risks during typhoon season, this study simulated wave heights from 1961 to 2020 using historical wind field data from the EC-Earth3 climate model and the WAVEWATCH III wave model. The 95th percentile was chosen as the threshold for extreme wave events, and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model was applied for fitting. Finally, the bootstrap resampling method was used to quantify uncertainties in return periods to ensure reliable assessments of design wave heights. The analysis shows a slight increase in design wave heights with longer return periods (10 to 200 years) near Taiwan, with significantly higher wave heights observed in the southern and eastern regions, indicating a need to enhance disaster resilience in marine infrastructure designs for these areas.

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Yang-Ming Fan

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Yang-Ming Fan
Yang-Ming Fan

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Short summary
Wave height trends in the Northwest Pacific over 60 years were analyzed to estimate design wave heights and assess the resilience of marine structures to extreme waves. Using historical wind data and wave models, this study highlights typhoon-season wave impacts on offshore and coastal areas. Results show higher wave heights in southern and eastern Taiwan, stressing the need for stronger infrastructure. These findings support safer designs to withstand future extreme conditions.
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