On the seasonal variability of ocean heat transport and ice shelf melt around Antarctica

Abstract. The delivery of ocean heat to Antarctic ice shelves is due to intrusions of waters warmer than the local freezing point temperature. Changes in the supply of ocean heat will determine how rapidly ice shelves melt at their base, which affects Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss and future global mean sea level rise. However, processes driving ice shelf basal melting are still poorly understood. Here we investigate the drivers of heat convergence along the Antarctic margins by performing an ocean heat budget analysis using a high-fidelity 4 km circum-Antarctic ocean–ice-shelf model. The simulation produces high basal melting in West Antarctica associated with sustained ocean heat convergence driven by advection of relatively warm deep water intrusions, with minimal seasonality in both heat supply and basal melting. For East Antarctica, ice shelves have substantial basal melt seasonality, driven by strong air-sea winter cooling over the continental shelf depressing shallow melting, while in summer, increased heat inflow towards the ice shelves is driven by surface-warmed waters that subduct under shallow regions of ice, increasing melt. The high seasonality of basal melting in East Antarctic ice shelves is responsive to interactions between the atmospheric forcing, the local icescape, and the activity of polynyas. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in future climate change scenarios are critical in determining the duration and intensity of air-sea fluxes with substantial impacts on ice shelf basal melting and ice sheet and sea level budgets.