the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Abstract. Scenarios represent a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation and adaptation actions). This paper describes the scenario framework for ScenarioMIP as part of CMIP7. The design process, initiated in June 2023, has involved various rounds of interaction with the research community and user groups at large. The proposal covers a set of scenarios exploring high levels of climate change (to explore high-end climate risks), medium levels of climate change (anchored to current policy action), and low levels of climate change (aligned with current international agreements). These scenarios follow very different trajectories in terms of emissions, with some likely to experience peaks and subsequent declines in greenhouse gas concentrations. An important innovation is that most scenarios are intended to be run, if possible, in emission-driven mode, providing a better representation of the earth system uncertainty space. The proposal also includes plans for long-term extensions (up to 2500 AD) to study slow climate change-related processes, and (ir)reversibility. This proposal forms the basis for further implementation of the framework in terms of the derivation of climate forcing pathways for use by earth system models and additional variants for adaptation and mitigation studies.
Competing interests: Some authors are members of the editorial board of the journal. Most authors will be involved in subsequent research based on the ScenarioMIP protocol.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.- Preprint
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Status: open (until 27 Mar 2025)
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CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3765', Sungbo Shim, 20 Feb 2025
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According to line 242-250, it is stated that CMIP will provide CO2 concentration data for GCM without carbon cycle module. Do you mean that CMIP will provide concentration data for all 6 future scenarios (Tier1) in Table 1?? Or do CMIP only provide the concentration required for the 3 experimental types (HC, MC, LC) in Table 1?? These sentences are not clear. I would like to express it in detail.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765-CC1
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