Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3645
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3645
03 Jan 2025
 | 03 Jan 2025

Modeling Total Phosphorus Transport in the European Riverine System: Parameterization and Projections under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios

Alberto Elizalde, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, Tobias Stacke, and Stefan Hagemann

Abstract. Eutrophication is recognized as a critical ecological challenge that detrimentally affects aquatic ecosystems in both riverine and marine environments. Understanding how future human actions may influence nutrient pollution is crucial for mitigating these effects. While studies have focused on phosphorus trends related to fertilizer use in cropland areas only, this study also considers land-use changes and human development as defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Phosphorus transport trends are estimated using a new parameterization in a hydrological model, taking into account the evolution of agricultural, urban, and natural land use types, in line with the SSP narratives, as well as aquaculture activities, atmospheric deposition, and weathering process. Additionally, the effects of global warming are integrated by incorporating simulated hydrological data following three Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios. Total phosphorus load budgets are estimated for the four semi-enclosed European seas. The findings indicate that phosphorus losses are primarily driven by human development and land-use expansion, outweighing the response from pollution control policies and technological advances and, to some extent, hydrological changes due to climate change. The scenario data generated, and the new parameterization implemented within an Earth system model framework, can serve as a valuable resource for ecosystem modeling efforts.

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Alberto Elizalde, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, Tobias Stacke, and Stefan Hagemann

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3645', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Feb 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Alberto Elizalde, 19 Feb 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3645', Anonymous Referee #2, 23 May 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Alberto Elizalde, 17 Jun 2025

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3645', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Feb 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Alberto Elizalde, 19 Feb 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3645', Anonymous Referee #2, 23 May 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Alberto Elizalde, 17 Jun 2025
Alberto Elizalde, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, Tobias Stacke, and Stefan Hagemann

Data sets

Total phosphorus transport and river runoff over Europe Alberto Elizalde and Stefan Hagemann https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/cD_Priver_Eur

Alberto Elizalde, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, Tobias Stacke, and Stefan Hagemann

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Short summary
This study examines phosphorus land-to-sea transport in Europe, exploring changes over time and predicting future trends under various scenarios. It integrates human and environmental factors, offering a comprehensive analysis. Our findings show how global warming-induced rainfall patterns affect phosphorus levels. While pollution reduction policies are helpful, population growth, land-use changes, and increased rainfall could lead to higher phosphorus levels in the future.
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