Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-93
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-93
18 Jan 2024
 | 18 Jan 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Fluvial Flood Inundation and Humanitarian Impact Model Based On Open Data

Lukas Riedel, Thomas Röösli, Thomas Vogt, and David N. Bresch

Abstract. Fluvial floods are destructive hazards that affect millions of people worldwide each year. Forecasting flood events and their potential impacts therefore is crucial for disaster preparation and mitigation. Modeling flood inundation based on extreme value analysis of river discharges is an alternative to physical models of flood dynamics, which are computationally expensive. We present the implementation of a globally applicable, open-source fluvial flood model within a state-of-the-art natural catastrophe modeling framework. It uses openly available data to rapidly compute flood inundation footprints of historic and forecasted events for the estimation of associated impacts. At the example of Pakistan, we use this flood model to compute flood depths and extents, and employ it to estimate population displacement due to floods. Comparing flood extents to satellite data reveals that incorporating estimated flood protection standards does not necessarily improve the flood footprint computed by the model. We further show that, after calibrating the vulnerability of the impact model to a single event, the estimated displacement caused by past floods is in good agreement with disaster reports. Finally, we demonstrate that this calibrated model is suited for probabilistic impact-based forecasting.

Lukas Riedel, Thomas Röösli, Thomas Vogt, and David N. Bresch

Status: open (until 14 Mar 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-93', Sylvain Ponserre, 20 Feb 2024 reply
Lukas Riedel, Thomas Röösli, Thomas Vogt, and David N. Bresch

Model code and software

Software, Data, and Scripts for "Fluvial Flood Inundation and Humanitarian Impact Model Based On Open Data" Lukas Riedel https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10518953

Lukas Riedel, Thomas Röösli, Thomas Vogt, and David N. Bresch

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Short summary
River floods are among the most devastating natural disasters. We propose a flood model with statistical approach based on openly available data. The model is integrated in a framework for estimating impacts of physical hazards. Although the model only agrees moderately with satellite detected floods, we show that it can be used for forecasting the magnitude of flood events in terms of humanitarian impacts and for comparing these with past events.