Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903
16 Apr 2024
 | 16 Apr 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation

François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier

Abstract. To reach climate mitigation goals, the share of wind power in the electricity production is going to increase substantially in France. In winter, low wind days are challenging for the electricity system if compounded with cold days that are associated with peak electricity demand. The scope of this study is to characterize the evolution of compound low wind and cold events in winter over the 1950–2022 period in France. Compound events are identified at the daily scale using a bottom-up approach based on two indices that are relevant to the French energy sector, derived from temperature and wind observations. The frequency of compound events shows high interannual variability, with some winters having no event and others having up to 13, and a decrease over the 1950–2022 period. Based on a k-means unsupervised classification technique, four weather types are identified, highlighting the diversity of synoptic situations leading to the occurrence of compound events. The weather type associated with the highest frequency of compound events presents pronounced positive sea-level pressure anomalies over Iceland and negative anomalies west of Portugal, limiting the entrance of the westerlies and inducing a north-easterly flow bringing cold air over France and Europe generally. We further show that the atmospheric circulation and its internal variability are likely to play a role in the observed reduction in cold days, suggesting that this negative trend may not be entirely be driven by anthropogenic forcings. Despite this suggested role for cold days, the observed decrease in compound events does not seem to be strongly influenced by the regional atmospheric circulation.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier

Status: open (until 15 Jun 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-903', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 May 2024 reply
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier

Viewed

Total article views: 189 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
145 32 12 189 7 7
  • HTML: 145
  • PDF: 32
  • XML: 12
  • Total: 189
  • BibTeX: 7
  • EndNote: 7
Views and downloads (calculated since 16 Apr 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 16 Apr 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 176 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 176 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 20 May 2024
Download
Short summary
The objective of this study is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a high interannual variability and a decrease over the 1950–2022 period. We further show that the regional atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound events occurence, but do not strongly contributes to the observed decrease.