Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-856
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-856
26 Mar 2024
 | 26 Mar 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Invited perspectives: Safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments

Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn

Abstract. Flood hazard and risk assessments (FHRAs), and the underlying models, form the basis of decisions regarding flood mitigation and climate adaptation measures and are thus imperative for safeguarding communities from the devastating consequences of flood events. In this perspective paper, we discuss how FHRAs should be validated to be fit-for-purpose in order to optimally support decision-making. We argue that current validation approaches focus on technical issues, with insufficient consideration of the context in which decisions are made. To address this issue, we propose a novel validation framework for FHRAs, structured in a three-level hierarchy: process-based, outcome-based, and impact-based. Our framework adds crucial dimensions to current validation approaches, such as the need to understand the possible impacts on society when the assessment has large errors. It further emphasizes the essential role of stakeholder participation, objectivity, and verifiability when assessing flood hazard and risk. Using the example of flood emergency management, we discuss how the proposed framework can be implemented. Although we have developed the framework for flooding, our ideas are also applicable to assessing risk caused by other types of natural hazards.

Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn

Status: open (until 08 May 2024)

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Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn

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Short summary
We discuss the validation of flood hazard and risk assessments (FHRAs) to ensure they are useful for decision-making. We propose a new validation framework that considers not only technical aspects but also the real-world context in which decisions are made. By applying this framework to flood emergency planning, we demonstrate its practicality.