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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-856
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-856
26 Mar 2024
 | 26 Mar 2024

Invited perspectives: Safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments

Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn

Abstract. Flood hazard and risk assessments (FHRAs), and the underlying models, form the basis of decisions regarding flood mitigation and climate adaptation measures and are thus imperative for safeguarding communities from the devastating consequences of flood events. In this perspective paper, we discuss how FHRAs should be validated to be fit-for-purpose in order to optimally support decision-making. We argue that current validation approaches focus on technical issues, with insufficient consideration of the context in which decisions are made. To address this issue, we propose a novel validation framework for FHRAs, structured in a three-level hierarchy: process-based, outcome-based, and impact-based. Our framework adds crucial dimensions to current validation approaches, such as the need to understand the possible impacts on society when the assessment has large errors. It further emphasizes the essential role of stakeholder participation, objectivity, and verifiability when assessing flood hazard and risk. Using the example of flood emergency management, we discuss how the proposed framework can be implemented. Although we have developed the framework for flooding, our ideas are also applicable to assessing risk caused by other types of natural hazards.

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26 Nov 2024
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Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

The manuscript addresses an important topic of the useful and correct use of flood hazard and...
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We discuss the validation of flood hazard and risk assessments (FHRAs) to ensure they are useful...
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