Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-790
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-790
21 Mar 2024
 | 21 Mar 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Arie Staal, Pim Meijer, Maganizo Kruger Nyasulu, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, and Stefan C. Dekker

Abstract. Many areas across the globe rely on upwind land areas for their precipitation supply through terrestrial precipitation recycling. Global warming and land-use changes may affect the future patterns of terrestrial precipitation recycling, but where and to which extent remains unclear. To study how the global patterns of precipitation recycling may change until the end of the 21st century we present a new forward-tracking version of the three-dimensional atmospheric moisture tracking model UTrack that is forced by output of the Norwegian Earth System model (NorESM2). We simulate global precipitation recycling in four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which are internally consistent combinations of climate- and land-use scenarios used in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The scenarios range from mild to severe: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. We compare results for the middle of the century (2050–2059) and end of the century (2090–2099) with a 2015–2024 baseline. We similarly also calculate basin precipitation recycling for the 26 major river basins of the world. We find that the global terrestrial moisture recycling ratio decreases with the severity of the SSPs and estimate a decrease in this ratio of 2.1 % with every degree of global warming. However, we find differences among regions and river basins in trends in precipitation recycling and whether projected drying or wetting is mainly contributed by land or ocean. Our results give critical insight into the relative contributions of global warming and land use changes on global precipitation changes over the course of this century. In addition, our model paves the way for more detailed regional studies of future changes in terrestrial moisture recycling.

Arie Staal, Pim Meijer, Maganizo Kruger Nyasulu, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, and Stefan C. Dekker

Status: open (until 02 May 2024)

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  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-790', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Apr 2024 reply
Arie Staal, Pim Meijer, Maganizo Kruger Nyasulu, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, and Stefan C. Dekker

Data sets

Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Arie Staal, Pim Meijer, Maganizo Kruger Nyasulu, Obbe Tuinenburg, and Stefan Dekker https://zenodo.org/records/10650579

Model code and software

UTrack-NorESM2_global_land Arie Staal, Pim Meijer, Maganizo Kruger Nyasulu, Obbe Tuinenburg, and Stefan Dekker https://github.com/ArieStaal/UTrack-NorESM2_global_land

Arie Staal, Pim Meijer, Maganizo Kruger Nyasulu, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, and Stefan C. Dekker

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Short summary
Many areas across the globe rely on upwind land areas for their precipitation supply through terrestrial precipitation recycling. Here we simulate global precipitation recycling in four climate- and land-use scenarios until 2100. We find that global terrestrial moisture recycling decreases by 2.1 % with every degree of global warming, but with strong regional differences.