Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-673
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-673
28 Mar 2024
 | 28 Mar 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier

Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson

Abstract. In recent decades, glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica have made the largest contribution to mass loss from the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet. Glacier retreat and acceleration have led to concerns about the stability of the region and the effects of future climate change. Coastal thinning and near-synchronous increases in ice flux across neighbouring glaciers suggest that ocean-driven melting is one of the main drivers of mass imbalance. However, the response of individual glaciers to changes in ocean conditions varies according to their local geometry. One of the largest and fastest flowing of these glaciers, Pine Island Glacier (PIG), underwent a retreat from a subglacial ridge in the 1940s following a period of unusually warm conditions. Despite subsequent cooler periods, the glacier failed to recover back to the ridge and continued retreating to its present-day position. Here, we use the ice-flow model Ua to investigate the sensitivity of this retreat to changes in basal melting. We show that a short period of increased basal melt was sufficient to force the glacier from its stable position on the ridge and undergo an irreversible retreat to the next topographic high. Once high melting begins upstream of the ridge, only near-zero melt rates can stop the retreat, indicating a possible hysteresis in the system. Our results suggest that unstable and irreversible responses to warm anomalies are possible, and can lead to substantial changes in ice flux over relatively short periods of only a few decades.

Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson

Status: open (until 09 May 2024)

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  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-673', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Apr 2024 reply
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson

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Short summary
We use a numerical ice-flow model to simulate the response of a 1940s Pine Island Glacier to changes in melting beneath its ice shelf. A decadal period of warm forcing is sufficient to push the glacier into an unstable, irreversible retreat from its long-term position on a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain. This retreat can only be stopped when unrealistic cold forcing is applied. These results show that short warm anomalies can lead to quick and substantial increases in ice flux.