From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications

Abstract. A cascade of drought impacts refers to a series of interconnected events that trigger a chain reaction of impacts, extending beyond water scarcity, to affect agricultural production, socio-economic factors, and the environment. This paper aims to understand the role of society in mitigating drought impacts, particularly through policy responses. Conducting a case study in Ceará state, northeast Brazil, we used a global rare dataset of continuously drought monitoring, complemented by interviews with smallholder farmers and agricultural extension technicians. Additionally, we analyzed policy documents related to public policies implemented at the local level. Employing a classification of drought impacts as our analytical framework, our findings indicate that socio-environmental-economic impacts of drought are less frequently reported, suggesting that development policies are mitigating cascading effects on livelihoods. Most impacts are associated with hydrological impacts of drought, suggesting unintended consequences of investments in increasing water supply. We emphasize the significant contribution of public policies to mitigating the cascading effects of drought, which do not necessarily involve increasing water availability, but strengthen the local economy.