Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-499
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-499
23 Feb 2024
 | 23 Feb 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event catalogue, 1950–2020

Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich

Abstract. Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors including climate variation, demographic dynamics, economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction and flood risk reduction measures. Attribution of those drivers through the use of counterfactual scenarios of hazard, exposure or vulnerability first requires a good representation of historical events, including their location, intensity and the factual circumstances in which they occurred. Here, we develop a chain of models that is capable of recreating riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe between 1950 and 2020 that had a potential to cause significant socioeconomic impacts. This factual catalogue of almost 15,000 such events was scrutinised with historical records of flood impacts. We found that at least 10 % of them had led to significant socioeconomic impacts (including fatalities) according to available sources. The model chain was able to capture events responsible for 96 % of known impacts contained in the HANZE flood impact database in terms of persons affected and economic losses, and for 81 % of fatalities. The dataset enables studying drivers of vulnerability and flood adaptation due to a large sample of events with historical impact data. The model chain can further be used to generate counterfactual events, especially related to climate change and human influence on catchments.

Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich

Status: open (until 20 Apr 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-499', Anonymous Referee #1, 26 Mar 2024 reply
    • AC1: 'Reply to RC1', Dominik Paprotny, 04 Apr 2024 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-499', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Apr 2024 reply
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich

Data sets

HANZE catalogue of modelled and historical floods in Europe, 1950-2020 Dominik Paprotny https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10629443

Coastal sea level and its components for Europe, 1950-2020 Dominik Paprotny https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10630338

HANZE v2.2 flood impact model input data Dominik Paprotny https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10630862

HANZE catalogue of modelled flood footprints in Europe, 1950-2020 Dominik Paprotny https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10640692

Model code and software

HANZE v2.2 flood impact model Dominik Paprotny https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10678820

Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich

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Short summary
Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15,000 potential floods riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events were reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.