Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-441
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-441
27 Feb 2024
 | 27 Feb 2024

ISMIP6-based Antarctic Projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model

James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Helene L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, and Mira Adhikari

Abstract. The contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheets contribution to sea level over the 21st century. It quantified uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate scenario, forcing climate model and uncertain model parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model, alongside new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively explore uncertain ice sheet processes. These results contributed to Antarctic projections of Edwards et al. (2021), which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). The BISICLES experiments presented here show the important interplay between surface mass balance forcing and ocean driven melt, with high warming, high accumulation forcing conditions leading to mass gain (negative sea level contribution) under low sensitivity to ocean driven melt. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing tested.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

04 Feb 2025
ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Helene L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, and Mira Adhikari

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-441', Tong Zhang, 04 May 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', James ONeill, 29 Jul 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', James ONeill, 29 Jul 2024
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC1', James ONeill, 29 Jul 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-441', Alexander Robel, 30 May 2024
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC2', James ONeill, 29 Jul 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-441', Anonymous Referee #3, 03 Jun 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC3', James ONeill, 29 Jul 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-441', Tong Zhang, 04 May 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', James ONeill, 29 Jul 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', James ONeill, 29 Jul 2024
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC1', James ONeill, 29 Jul 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-441', Alexander Robel, 30 May 2024
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC2', James ONeill, 29 Jul 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-441', Anonymous Referee #3, 03 Jun 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC3', James ONeill, 29 Jul 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (07 Aug 2024) by Ed Blockley
AR by James ONeill on behalf of the Authors (03 Oct 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (21 Oct 2024) by Ed Blockley
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (28 Oct 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (06 Nov 2024)
RR by Tong Zhang (07 Nov 2024)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (07 Nov 2024) by Ed Blockley
AR by James ONeill on behalf of the Authors (15 Nov 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (22 Nov 2024) by Ed Blockley
AR by James ONeill on behalf of the Authors (04 Dec 2024)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

04 Feb 2025
ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Helene L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, and Mira Adhikari
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Helene L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, and Mira Adhikari

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Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century, under a range of future climates, varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that, under stronger warming scenarios, ocean temperatures increases and more snow falls on the ice sheet. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melting driven loss exceeds snowfall driven gains, so that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.