Towards robust community assessments of the Earth's climate sensitivity

Abstract. The eventual planetary warming in response to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is not precisely known. This climate sensitivity S depends primarily on the net physical climate feedbacks, usually denoted as λ. Multiple lines of evidence can constrain this feedback parameter: proxy-based and model evidence from past equilibrium climates, process-based understanding of the physics underlying changes, and recent observations of temperature change, top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance, and ocean heat content. However, despite recent advances in combining these lines of evidence, the estimated range of S remains large. Here, using a Bayesian framework, we discuss three sources of uncertainty: uncertainty in the evidence, structural uncertainty in the model used to interpret that evidence, and differing prior beliefs, and show how these affect the conclusions we may draw from a single line of evidence. We then propose a method to combine multiple estimates of the evidence, multiple multiple explanatory models, and the subjective assessments of different experts in order to arrive at an assessment of λ (and hence, climate sensitivity S) that may be rapidly updated as new information arrives and truly reflects the existing community of experts.